The final ballot has been conducted.
The results were:
1. Boris Johnson = 160
2. Jeremy Hunt = 77
3. Michael Gove = 75
Abstentions = 1
After a narrow victory for Gove over Hunt in terms of second place in the fourth ballot, Hunt has successfully beaten him and entered into the final two against Johnson. The final two are the same final two from the first ballot.
Javid's elimination and one less abstention has led to Johnson claiming an extra three votes, Hunt managed to secure 18 and Gove 14. This result was crucial for Hunt to beat Gove. Javid's voters would, I believe, had gone to Johnson if he was eliminated earlier but the final ballot was merely a race for second place. Sources of Westminster has led to beliefs that the Tory MPs did not want a Gove V Johnson, fearing that kind of rivalry from the two leading people from the 2016 Vote Leave campaign would severely damage the party, more so than it has already. Thus Hunt was voted in for second place, but by an incredibly small margin.
The next month sees Conservative Party Members cast their vote after a series of hustings. Johnson will go against Hunt in a head-to-head on ITV on 9th June. Johnson is the hot favourite among the membership however now all those who are anti-Johnson, and there many, will all be behind Hunt. Johnson will probably win but I do not believe it will be a landslide victory.
Star Wars and Doctor Who
Thursday, 20 June 2019
Conservative Party Ballot Four
The penultimate round of parliamentary MPs has now completed with the last one due within the next half an hour.
The results were:
1. Boris Johnson = 157
2. Michael Gove = 61
3. Jeremy Hunt = 59
4. Sajid Javid = 34
Just a few notable results from here as we do not have time
-Boris Johnson has now achieved over 50% of the vote
-Michael Gove has now overtaken Jeremy Hunt for the first time in the race for second place
-Sajid Javid is out, achieving less 4 MPs.
Rory Stewart's 27 MPs seemed to have spread across the board. Gove achieved the backing of 10 additional MPs and Hunt 5. 10 others seemingly went to Boris, but also surprisingly there were also two spoiled ballots this time. Four less MPs taken from Javid presumably went to Hunt or Gove to best get who they want in the final two.
Javid's votes will disperse to no single candidate so it will be all to play for for who will take on Boris in the final two.
The results were:
1. Boris Johnson = 157
2. Michael Gove = 61
3. Jeremy Hunt = 59
4. Sajid Javid = 34
Just a few notable results from here as we do not have time
-Boris Johnson has now achieved over 50% of the vote
-Michael Gove has now overtaken Jeremy Hunt for the first time in the race for second place
-Sajid Javid is out, achieving less 4 MPs.
Rory Stewart's 27 MPs seemed to have spread across the board. Gove achieved the backing of 10 additional MPs and Hunt 5. 10 others seemingly went to Boris, but also surprisingly there were also two spoiled ballots this time. Four less MPs taken from Javid presumably went to Hunt or Gove to best get who they want in the final two.
Javid's votes will disperse to no single candidate so it will be all to play for for who will take on Boris in the final two.
Wednesday, 19 June 2019
Conservative Party Leadership: Ballot three
Following Dominic Raab's elimination there were 30 MPs up for grabs. The results were as follows:
1. Boris Johnson = 143
2. Jeremy Hunt = 54
3. Michael Gove = 51
4. Sajid Javid = 38
5. Rory Stewart = 27
Now with every candidate being eliminated you would expect the surviving candidates to receive more backings. This has occurred for everyone in every round so far, except for the eliminated candidate from the third ballot, Rory Stewart. Stewart was the outsider from the get-go but did receive important backers such as Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve and David Guake as well as David Lingington when Hancock withdrew. Stewart only just made it into the second ballot, but in that second ballot he performed incredibly well, coming fourth of the six. He has now lost 10 MP backers, perhaps after his lackluster appearance on the BBC debate yesterday. Javid, who only just made it through to this round, has managed survive another ballot.
With Rory's lost 10 and Raab's 30 MPs up for grabs the number of gains are as follows
Boris Johnson = 17
Jeremy Hunt = 9
Michael Gove = 10
Sajid Javid = 5
Rory Stewart = -10
Looking at the results and the top three remain the same in the same order, however this could still change in terms of the second place. Hunt has always been closely followed by Gove, and that gap has lowered by 1 MP each ballot. Stewart's backers are likely to go to either Gove or Hunt which means that, due to the small difference in numbers between them, the second place candidate is not as confidently assuring as the winner.
On the other hand, Javid is unlikely to survive the next round, although I said that for this one. There is now a somewhat comfortable margin of lead of Gove and Hunt above Javid, so it is unlikely that that will grow. However, there are now 27 more MPs up for grabs, which if some did go to Javid, would see a rise in support from him making it even more unclear on who will survive.
Boris Johnson has seen a rise in support, and the most amount of new backers. This is not surprising, as Raab endorsed Johnson himself (logically unlike Hancock) and his backers are likely to follow due to the similar Brexit stance. Javid's elimination is key for Gove and Hunt in terms of which one of them will face Boris for the membership vote, which arguably they will definitely lose.
The next round of votes is tomorrow, where another candidate will be eliminated...
1. Boris Johnson = 143
2. Jeremy Hunt = 54
3. Michael Gove = 51
4. Sajid Javid = 38
5. Rory Stewart = 27
Now with every candidate being eliminated you would expect the surviving candidates to receive more backings. This has occurred for everyone in every round so far, except for the eliminated candidate from the third ballot, Rory Stewart. Stewart was the outsider from the get-go but did receive important backers such as Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve and David Guake as well as David Lingington when Hancock withdrew. Stewart only just made it into the second ballot, but in that second ballot he performed incredibly well, coming fourth of the six. He has now lost 10 MP backers, perhaps after his lackluster appearance on the BBC debate yesterday. Javid, who only just made it through to this round, has managed survive another ballot.
With Rory's lost 10 and Raab's 30 MPs up for grabs the number of gains are as follows
Boris Johnson = 17
Jeremy Hunt = 9
Michael Gove = 10
Sajid Javid = 5
Rory Stewart = -10
Looking at the results and the top three remain the same in the same order, however this could still change in terms of the second place. Hunt has always been closely followed by Gove, and that gap has lowered by 1 MP each ballot. Stewart's backers are likely to go to either Gove or Hunt which means that, due to the small difference in numbers between them, the second place candidate is not as confidently assuring as the winner.
On the other hand, Javid is unlikely to survive the next round, although I said that for this one. There is now a somewhat comfortable margin of lead of Gove and Hunt above Javid, so it is unlikely that that will grow. However, there are now 27 more MPs up for grabs, which if some did go to Javid, would see a rise in support from him making it even more unclear on who will survive.
Boris Johnson has seen a rise in support, and the most amount of new backers. This is not surprising, as Raab endorsed Johnson himself (logically unlike Hancock) and his backers are likely to follow due to the similar Brexit stance. Javid's elimination is key for Gove and Hunt in terms of which one of them will face Boris for the membership vote, which arguably they will definitely lose.
The next round of votes is tomorrow, where another candidate will be eliminated...
Tuesday, 18 June 2019
Conservative Party Leadership Ballot Two
The results of the second ballot to chose the next Conservative Party Leader and thus also Prime Minister is as follows: (please note that despite not being eliminated, nor losing out of the candidates that made it through the threshold, Hancock has pulled out)
1. Boris Johnson = 126
2. Jeremy Hunt = 46
3. Michael Gove = 41
4. Rory Stewart = 37
5. Sajid Javid = 33
6. Dominic Raab = 30
The results of the second ballot have proved my prediction correct. The results of the first ballot do not necessarily reflect those of future ballots. This is of course largely down to the fact that there are MPs who have lost their chosen candidate. With McVey, Harper and Leadsom's defeat and Hancock's withdrawal there were 49 MPs who now had to vote for someone different. Assuming everyone who supported the successful candidates of the first ballot remained with them in the second ballot, the 49 MPs were disrupted to the the successful candidates as follows:
Boris Johnson: Gained 12 MPs
Jeremy Hunt: Gained 3 MPs
Michael Gove: Gained 4 MPs
Rory Stewart: Gained 18 MPs
Sajid Javid: Gained 10 MPs
Dominic Raab: Gained 3 MPs
Stewart, who only just got through the 17 minimum at the last round, has increased his performance by the most impressive margin. This is likely down to the fact that most of Hancock's supporters (although not Hancock himself) are have likely to have given their vote to Stewart as they had a similar position on Brexit. Javid also gained a significant support, as did Johnson who has received the backing of previous contestants McVey and Leadsom and Hancock and likely the majority of the former two's voters. Hunt, Gove and Raab made the least gains, and unfortunately for Raab that meant be knocked out of the competiton.
Under the old system of knocking out a candidate one by one, Raab would have been safe perhaps for a little while longer. He finished 4th in the first ballot of 10 contestants. Now, when down to six, he drops two places. Javid and more notably Stewart were on the tale end of the last ballot but both manage to make it through the 33 necessary margin, Javid just hitting it. Stewart could quite easily move further up the peddle stool.
Looking at the results of this ballot and it is quite clear that Boris is the leading favourite. His increase was not as large as Stewart's but it was second and he is even more in front than he was peviously. Raab and his supporters are likely to go to him in the next round, meaning that Johnson is almost certainly going to win the next ballot, if not every ballot. However the battle for number two is less clear. Hunt and Gove have been in the top 3 each ballot so far, but their margin of victory is small. Raab's supporters may back Gove as the leading brexiteer who is not Johnson, but others will not as they might think that Gove is not strong enough of a brexiteer.
The next ballot, tomorrow's ballot, the third round, returns to the old system. There is no threshold any more. The lowest supported candidate will be eliminated. At the moment that seems Javid, and in my opinion, that is likely to remain the case. He may well get a few more supporters from the 30 MPs now up for grabs, but it is unlikely to be enough. That being said, he would only need 4 to match Stewart, who is unlikely to get any new supporters from Raab's team but may well get some defections from other candidates. However, I do believe that Javid will be out of the running by tomorrow and then the tables will really start to turn. Javid is more similar to Johnson in his approach, however his supporters may not be. Javid's supporters are likely to shift to all candidates, meaning that the race to be the number two becomes more unpredictable. I say number two because I think it is highly unlikely that Johnson will not win. However, this is also not guaranteed. He does not have 50% of the vote, he has 40% and it is possible that he may do something that will lose him a few votes.
My original prediction of Hunt and Johnson may not be as certain. Stewart and Gove do have a shot at getting there. Javid, I feel, has had his run.
Until tomorrow...
1. Boris Johnson = 126
2. Jeremy Hunt = 46
3. Michael Gove = 41
4. Rory Stewart = 37
5. Sajid Javid = 33
6. Dominic Raab = 30
The results of the second ballot have proved my prediction correct. The results of the first ballot do not necessarily reflect those of future ballots. This is of course largely down to the fact that there are MPs who have lost their chosen candidate. With McVey, Harper and Leadsom's defeat and Hancock's withdrawal there were 49 MPs who now had to vote for someone different. Assuming everyone who supported the successful candidates of the first ballot remained with them in the second ballot, the 49 MPs were disrupted to the the successful candidates as follows:
Boris Johnson: Gained 12 MPs
Jeremy Hunt: Gained 3 MPs
Michael Gove: Gained 4 MPs
Rory Stewart: Gained 18 MPs
Sajid Javid: Gained 10 MPs
Dominic Raab: Gained 3 MPs
Stewart, who only just got through the 17 minimum at the last round, has increased his performance by the most impressive margin. This is likely down to the fact that most of Hancock's supporters (although not Hancock himself) are have likely to have given their vote to Stewart as they had a similar position on Brexit. Javid also gained a significant support, as did Johnson who has received the backing of previous contestants McVey and Leadsom and Hancock and likely the majority of the former two's voters. Hunt, Gove and Raab made the least gains, and unfortunately for Raab that meant be knocked out of the competiton.
Under the old system of knocking out a candidate one by one, Raab would have been safe perhaps for a little while longer. He finished 4th in the first ballot of 10 contestants. Now, when down to six, he drops two places. Javid and more notably Stewart were on the tale end of the last ballot but both manage to make it through the 33 necessary margin, Javid just hitting it. Stewart could quite easily move further up the peddle stool.
Looking at the results of this ballot and it is quite clear that Boris is the leading favourite. His increase was not as large as Stewart's but it was second and he is even more in front than he was peviously. Raab and his supporters are likely to go to him in the next round, meaning that Johnson is almost certainly going to win the next ballot, if not every ballot. However the battle for number two is less clear. Hunt and Gove have been in the top 3 each ballot so far, but their margin of victory is small. Raab's supporters may back Gove as the leading brexiteer who is not Johnson, but others will not as they might think that Gove is not strong enough of a brexiteer.
The next ballot, tomorrow's ballot, the third round, returns to the old system. There is no threshold any more. The lowest supported candidate will be eliminated. At the moment that seems Javid, and in my opinion, that is likely to remain the case. He may well get a few more supporters from the 30 MPs now up for grabs, but it is unlikely to be enough. That being said, he would only need 4 to match Stewart, who is unlikely to get any new supporters from Raab's team but may well get some defections from other candidates. However, I do believe that Javid will be out of the running by tomorrow and then the tables will really start to turn. Javid is more similar to Johnson in his approach, however his supporters may not be. Javid's supporters are likely to shift to all candidates, meaning that the race to be the number two becomes more unpredictable. I say number two because I think it is highly unlikely that Johnson will not win. However, this is also not guaranteed. He does not have 50% of the vote, he has 40% and it is possible that he may do something that will lose him a few votes.
My original prediction of Hunt and Johnson may not be as certain. Stewart and Gove do have a shot at getting there. Javid, I feel, has had his run.
Until tomorrow...
Thursday, 13 June 2019
Conservative Party Leadership: Ballot One
The Conservative Party's 313 MPs have cast their votes in the first ballot. Sam Gyimah did not make the necessary cut of 8 supporting MPs to compete so it was between 10 Tory members.
The results were:
1. Boris Johnson = 114
2. Jeremy Hunt = 43
3. Michael Gove = 37
4. Dominic Raab = 27
5. Sajid Javid = 23
6. Matt Hancock = 20
7. Rory Stewart = 19
8. Andrea Leadsom = 11
9. Mark Harper = 10
10. Esther McVey = 9
Theresa May, unlike David Cameron, did vote.
Under the new rules decided by the 1922 backbench committee, the top 7 make it through to the next round with Leadsom, Harper an McVey facing their elimination. Leadsom at the top of her field had 84 supporting MPs in 2016 but has lost a lot of that, perhaps due to her withdrawal resulting in Theresa May's appointment.
The results are definitely interesting. Firstly all MPs achieved more than their declared backings, meaning that there was little if any back stabbing in this round. It is also clear that Boris takes the lead, but it is not as comfortable as May's. He has secured roughly 1/3 of the vote and can still be removed from the top two. It is also important to remember that the winner of the 2001 and 2005 leadership elections did not enter the final two so it could not go as well for Boris as it did for May (in the campaign sense). This being said, it does appear that the competition is now a vote on who will go against Boris in the membership vote. This by the result appears to be Hunt, however he only has a small lead over Gove.
It is important to remember that now there are 29 MPs who need to reallocate their support as their chosen candidate has withdrawn. Harper, Leadsom and McVey may also now endorse who they wish to be the next leader of the Conservative party, and their respective votes may follow them. McVey and Leadsom where the most hardcore Brexiteers in the running, both aiming for a no deal with a deal not their goal. Harper fell into the same category of Hunt and Gove of aiming for a deal and perhaps extending the deadline but ultimately is prepared to leave without a deal. McVey and Leadsom's support is likely to go towards Boris but they may feel that their support should go on another candidate as the race is now more on who will take on Boris.
The next vote requires 33 MPs to back the candidate and that means that as it stands only three candidates will go through, however the 29 MPs now up for graps, plus the fact that other MPs will change their minds, means it is entirely possible that even the now losing candidate, Rory Stewart, could still make it through. Rory was the only one who was not expected to make it through who did, and this is perhaps down to his rise in grassroot campaigning, which has seem him rise to second place in the membership polls.
These are interesting times ahead and it will be very interesting to see what happens next.
The results were:
1. Boris Johnson = 114
2. Jeremy Hunt = 43
3. Michael Gove = 37
4. Dominic Raab = 27
5. Sajid Javid = 23
6. Matt Hancock = 20
7. Rory Stewart = 19
8. Andrea Leadsom = 11
9. Mark Harper = 10
10. Esther McVey = 9
Theresa May, unlike David Cameron, did vote.
Under the new rules decided by the 1922 backbench committee, the top 7 make it through to the next round with Leadsom, Harper an McVey facing their elimination. Leadsom at the top of her field had 84 supporting MPs in 2016 but has lost a lot of that, perhaps due to her withdrawal resulting in Theresa May's appointment.
The results are definitely interesting. Firstly all MPs achieved more than their declared backings, meaning that there was little if any back stabbing in this round. It is also clear that Boris takes the lead, but it is not as comfortable as May's. He has secured roughly 1/3 of the vote and can still be removed from the top two. It is also important to remember that the winner of the 2001 and 2005 leadership elections did not enter the final two so it could not go as well for Boris as it did for May (in the campaign sense). This being said, it does appear that the competition is now a vote on who will go against Boris in the membership vote. This by the result appears to be Hunt, however he only has a small lead over Gove.
It is important to remember that now there are 29 MPs who need to reallocate their support as their chosen candidate has withdrawn. Harper, Leadsom and McVey may also now endorse who they wish to be the next leader of the Conservative party, and their respective votes may follow them. McVey and Leadsom where the most hardcore Brexiteers in the running, both aiming for a no deal with a deal not their goal. Harper fell into the same category of Hunt and Gove of aiming for a deal and perhaps extending the deadline but ultimately is prepared to leave without a deal. McVey and Leadsom's support is likely to go towards Boris but they may feel that their support should go on another candidate as the race is now more on who will take on Boris.
The next vote requires 33 MPs to back the candidate and that means that as it stands only three candidates will go through, however the 29 MPs now up for graps, plus the fact that other MPs will change their minds, means it is entirely possible that even the now losing candidate, Rory Stewart, could still make it through. Rory was the only one who was not expected to make it through who did, and this is perhaps down to his rise in grassroot campaigning, which has seem him rise to second place in the membership polls.
These are interesting times ahead and it will be very interesting to see what happens next.
Sunday, 9 June 2019
The Conservative Party Leadership Candidates - as it stands 9th June 2019
Tomorrow those that have declared they attend to run have to submit their candidacy to the 1922 committee. Here is how it currently looks like per MP and their declared backers. Kit Malthouse, who had 7 backers and James Clevely who had 4 backers have pulled out of the race.
1. Boris Johnson = 59
2. Michael Gove = 35
3. Jeremy Hunt = 33
4. Dominic Raab = 24
5. Sajid Javid = 17
6. Matt Hancock = 13
7. Mark Harper = 7
8. Esther McVey = 6
~ Rory Stewart = 6
10. Andrea Leadsom = 5
11. Sam Gyimah = 4
Under new rules and regulations of the contest, each MP has to have 8 backers plus themselves, so 9 in total, to run as opposite to 2 and themselves. This means that Harper, McVey, Stewart, Leadsom and Gyimah are all at a difficult position. However, it is important to remember that not every MP has publicly endorsed a candidate yet. 202 MPs of 313 have declared so far, that's 65%, just over 2/3s.
The current look of numbers puts Johnson way ahead of anyone else, seeming that the competition is really who will be against Boris in the head to head with the membership vote. The look of numbers has evolved throughout the contest. Johnson, Gove, Hunt and Raab were all neck and neck in the beginning but now they have begun to separate and Raab is now more in line with Javid in terms of numbers.
The first round, due for this Thursday, requires 16 MPs, or 5% to back the candidate for them to precede. As it stands 5 will already pass the first round but it is unknown how many others will also make this. Only 6 MPs now they have the necessary backing to even enter at this stage, so survival beyond the first round is not a given. The second round requires 10% of support, so 32 MPs. At this stage, 3 candidates already have that support so know they will make it past that, but who knows about the rest. Remember loyalties will move when candidates have been eliminated. To assist in where support is likely to go once the candidate has been eliminated, I have put the candidates into four groups based off their Brexit standpoint.
No Deal
Esther McVey
Andrea Leadsom
Deal but prepare for no deal
Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Dominic Raab
Sajid Javid
Deal
Jeremy Hunt
Matt Hancock
Mark Harper
Rory Stewart
Second Referendum
Sam Gyimah
Supporters of Sam are likely to go to a dealer, Stewart and Hancock are more likely to go to Gyimah than any chance of no deal in my opinion. Javid is likely to go to a deal rather than aim for no deal and any dealers preparing for no deal would then transfer to no deal.
If we transferred numbers from the bottom 5 candidates who currently don't have enough support to even enter the contest to who I personally believe they will back the numbers begin to have a different look.
Boris Johnson = 61
Jeremy Hunt = 42
Michael Gove = 36
Dominc Raab = 31
Matt Hancock = 21
Sajid Javid = 18
Suddenly Javid now falls behind. This is just a guess but it shows that the candidates can all move around. If I was to continue this process and remove Javid's supporters, the look will change again. Javid's are unlikely to go to all of the other contenders, some will go to Hunt I believe as Javid is not the strongest Brexiteer. Raab's allegations of progoring Parliament rules him out in my eyes, as does Hancock.
Boris Johnson = 67
Jeremy Hunt = 48
Michael Gove = 42
Matt Hancock = 21
Hancock then gets himself eliminated under my rule book. His supporters are likely to go to Hunt, but some will go to Gove. Few will probably go to Johnson as well but it is likely to be the smallest amount.
Boris Johnson = 71
Jeremy Hunt = 58
Michael Gove = 49
This would result in Boris and Jeremy going to the membership. This is what I call the race to be between.
Finally who has big name supporters. C stands for Cabinet or someone who attends cabinet. Eliminated or Pulled out contested is marked by E. Ruth Davison is not included as she is not an MP but she is influential in her position. She backs Javid.
Boris Johnson - Steve Baker, Peter Bone, James Brokenshire (C), Alun Caires (C) James Cleverley (E), Nadine Dorries, Sir Michael Fallon, Zac Goldsmith, Chris Grayling (C), Jo Johnson, Julian Lewis (C), Johnny Mercer, Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Liz Truss (C), John Wittingdale, Gavin WIlliamson.
Michael Gove - Karen Bradley (C), Michael Fabricant, Damien Hinds (C), Edward Leigh, Sir Oliver Letwin, Nicky Morgan, Mel Stride (C)
Jeremy Hunt - Liam Fox (C), Sir Patrick McLoughlin, Amber Rudd (C)
Dominc Raab - David Davis
Sajid Javid - Stephen Crabb, Jeremy Wright (C)
Matt Hancock - Damien Green, Dame Caroline Spellman
Rory Stewart - Ken Clarke, David Guake (C), Sir Nicholas Soames
Sam Gyimah - Dominic Grieve, Philip Lee
Boris Johnson has the most amount of support from Cabinet members, with a total of 5 so far. Gove has three, Hunt 2 and Javid and Stewart one each.
It is interesting times ahead in deed. Of the 28 Cabinet Members that I am including (all Cabinet members plus the Chief Whip, Secretary to the Treasury, Leader of the House of Commons and Attorney General), 17 have declared including those running themselves.
The contest officially beginnings tomorrow.
Since 9th June, Penny Mordant, another Cabinet minister, declared her backing for Hunt.
1. Boris Johnson = 59
2. Michael Gove = 35
3. Jeremy Hunt = 33
4. Dominic Raab = 24
5. Sajid Javid = 17
6. Matt Hancock = 13
7. Mark Harper = 7
8. Esther McVey = 6
~ Rory Stewart = 6
10. Andrea Leadsom = 5
11. Sam Gyimah = 4
Under new rules and regulations of the contest, each MP has to have 8 backers plus themselves, so 9 in total, to run as opposite to 2 and themselves. This means that Harper, McVey, Stewart, Leadsom and Gyimah are all at a difficult position. However, it is important to remember that not every MP has publicly endorsed a candidate yet. 202 MPs of 313 have declared so far, that's 65%, just over 2/3s.
The current look of numbers puts Johnson way ahead of anyone else, seeming that the competition is really who will be against Boris in the head to head with the membership vote. The look of numbers has evolved throughout the contest. Johnson, Gove, Hunt and Raab were all neck and neck in the beginning but now they have begun to separate and Raab is now more in line with Javid in terms of numbers.
The first round, due for this Thursday, requires 16 MPs, or 5% to back the candidate for them to precede. As it stands 5 will already pass the first round but it is unknown how many others will also make this. Only 6 MPs now they have the necessary backing to even enter at this stage, so survival beyond the first round is not a given. The second round requires 10% of support, so 32 MPs. At this stage, 3 candidates already have that support so know they will make it past that, but who knows about the rest. Remember loyalties will move when candidates have been eliminated. To assist in where support is likely to go once the candidate has been eliminated, I have put the candidates into four groups based off their Brexit standpoint.
No Deal
Esther McVey
Andrea Leadsom
Deal but prepare for no deal
Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Dominic Raab
Sajid Javid
Deal
Jeremy Hunt
Matt Hancock
Mark Harper
Rory Stewart
Second Referendum
Sam Gyimah
Supporters of Sam are likely to go to a dealer, Stewart and Hancock are more likely to go to Gyimah than any chance of no deal in my opinion. Javid is likely to go to a deal rather than aim for no deal and any dealers preparing for no deal would then transfer to no deal.
If we transferred numbers from the bottom 5 candidates who currently don't have enough support to even enter the contest to who I personally believe they will back the numbers begin to have a different look.
Boris Johnson = 61
Jeremy Hunt = 42
Michael Gove = 36
Dominc Raab = 31
Matt Hancock = 21
Sajid Javid = 18
Suddenly Javid now falls behind. This is just a guess but it shows that the candidates can all move around. If I was to continue this process and remove Javid's supporters, the look will change again. Javid's are unlikely to go to all of the other contenders, some will go to Hunt I believe as Javid is not the strongest Brexiteer. Raab's allegations of progoring Parliament rules him out in my eyes, as does Hancock.
Boris Johnson = 67
Jeremy Hunt = 48
Michael Gove = 42
Matt Hancock = 21
Hancock then gets himself eliminated under my rule book. His supporters are likely to go to Hunt, but some will go to Gove. Few will probably go to Johnson as well but it is likely to be the smallest amount.
Boris Johnson = 71
Jeremy Hunt = 58
Michael Gove = 49
This would result in Boris and Jeremy going to the membership. This is what I call the race to be between.
Finally who has big name supporters. C stands for Cabinet or someone who attends cabinet. Eliminated or Pulled out contested is marked by E. Ruth Davison is not included as she is not an MP but she is influential in her position. She backs Javid.
Boris Johnson - Steve Baker, Peter Bone, James Brokenshire (C), Alun Caires (C) James Cleverley (E), Nadine Dorries, Sir Michael Fallon, Zac Goldsmith, Chris Grayling (C), Jo Johnson, Julian Lewis (C), Johnny Mercer, Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Liz Truss (C), John Wittingdale, Gavin WIlliamson.
Michael Gove - Karen Bradley (C), Michael Fabricant, Damien Hinds (C), Edward Leigh, Sir Oliver Letwin, Nicky Morgan, Mel Stride (C)
Jeremy Hunt - Liam Fox (C), Sir Patrick McLoughlin, Amber Rudd (C)
Dominc Raab - David Davis
Sajid Javid - Stephen Crabb, Jeremy Wright (C)
Matt Hancock - Damien Green, Dame Caroline Spellman
Rory Stewart - Ken Clarke, David Guake (C), Sir Nicholas Soames
Sam Gyimah - Dominic Grieve, Philip Lee
Boris Johnson has the most amount of support from Cabinet members, with a total of 5 so far. Gove has three, Hunt 2 and Javid and Stewart one each.
It is interesting times ahead in deed. Of the 28 Cabinet Members that I am including (all Cabinet members plus the Chief Whip, Secretary to the Treasury, Leader of the House of Commons and Attorney General), 17 have declared including those running themselves.
The contest officially beginnings tomorrow.
Since 9th June, Penny Mordant, another Cabinet minister, declared her backing for Hunt.
Sunday, 2 June 2019
Conservative Party Leadership - who has most backing 2nd June
Number of Supporters - 2nd June 2019
1. Boris Johnson = 30
2. Jeremy Hunt = 29
~ Michael Gove = 29
4. Dominic Raab = 23
5. Sajid Javid = 17
6. Matt Hancock = 12
7. Kit Maldhouse = 7
8. Esther McVey = 6
9. Mark Harper = 5
~ Rory Stewart = 5
11. Andrea Leadsom = 4
~ James Clevley = 4
13. Sam Giyah = 1
Total MPs listed their support: 172 of 313 (55%)
With just over half of MPs listed their support, a picture can be taken on who will take the lead, however it could of course all change. In the way the contest works, only one candidate is eliminated at a time so although the top is of course important, it is the bottom that is more at this stage in terms of who will ultimately win.
With so many candidates entering, many will be on a similar number and many will be on a low number. Sam Giyah is currently the lowest, however he only revealed his candidacy today so his level of support is likely to be low at the moment. Remember that people will gain allegiances further on from candidates that have been eliminated and their supporters who match their view. My guess is that supporters of Giyah will go to Stewart, Hancock or Hunt upon them leaving. Clevley's support could go to any brexiteer. Leadsom's are likely to go to McVey.
Leadsom's performance is perhaps the most interesting. She is on the lower end despite coming second to Theresa May in the last leadership election. Boris is winning but only by a small margin and has only recently taken the lead from Hunt who has not received many endorsements recently. The top 4 candidates seem to be the only likely ones to end up in the top 2, Hunt is an almost definite as the only dealer of the 4, meaning the other dealers will back him. Johnson, Gove and Raab will battle it out for the other slot and whoever wins there is likely to be the new leader as the Conservative membership back a no deal.
Of the cabinet, three members or attendees have declared their backing. Liz Truss has for Johnson, Mel Stride for Gove and David Guake for Stewart. Of course, Hunt, Gove, Javid, Hancock and Stewart are Cabinet members themselves.
It will be very interesting to see what the actual result will end up being.
1. Boris Johnson = 30
2. Jeremy Hunt = 29
~ Michael Gove = 29
4. Dominic Raab = 23
5. Sajid Javid = 17
6. Matt Hancock = 12
7. Kit Maldhouse = 7
8. Esther McVey = 6
9. Mark Harper = 5
~ Rory Stewart = 5
11. Andrea Leadsom = 4
~ James Clevley = 4
13. Sam Giyah = 1
Total MPs listed their support: 172 of 313 (55%)
With just over half of MPs listed their support, a picture can be taken on who will take the lead, however it could of course all change. In the way the contest works, only one candidate is eliminated at a time so although the top is of course important, it is the bottom that is more at this stage in terms of who will ultimately win.
With so many candidates entering, many will be on a similar number and many will be on a low number. Sam Giyah is currently the lowest, however he only revealed his candidacy today so his level of support is likely to be low at the moment. Remember that people will gain allegiances further on from candidates that have been eliminated and their supporters who match their view. My guess is that supporters of Giyah will go to Stewart, Hancock or Hunt upon them leaving. Clevley's support could go to any brexiteer. Leadsom's are likely to go to McVey.
Leadsom's performance is perhaps the most interesting. She is on the lower end despite coming second to Theresa May in the last leadership election. Boris is winning but only by a small margin and has only recently taken the lead from Hunt who has not received many endorsements recently. The top 4 candidates seem to be the only likely ones to end up in the top 2, Hunt is an almost definite as the only dealer of the 4, meaning the other dealers will back him. Johnson, Gove and Raab will battle it out for the other slot and whoever wins there is likely to be the new leader as the Conservative membership back a no deal.
Of the cabinet, three members or attendees have declared their backing. Liz Truss has for Johnson, Mel Stride for Gove and David Guake for Stewart. Of course, Hunt, Gove, Javid, Hancock and Stewart are Cabinet members themselves.
It will be very interesting to see what the actual result will end up being.
Conservative Party Leadership Contest - Who is Standing Updated
Cabinet Members also include non-cabinet members that attend Cabinet meetings
Rory Stewart
Declared: 5th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Positions: International Development Secretary (2019-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: David Guake
Other Significant Support: Sir Nicholas Soames, Kenneth Clarke
Notes: Wishes to find a compromise for a deal to leave the European Union. Supported May in all three meaningful votes. Has declared that he would not serve under Boris Johnson if he backed no deal. Has stated no deal would be disastrous for the country. Wishes to solve Brexit by meeting people across the country through gatherings organised by Twitter.
Esther McVey
Declared: 9th May 2019
MP Since: 2010-2015, 2017-
Cabinet Position: Work and Pensions Secretary (2018)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: No Deal (will not renegotiate a deal at all)
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Inapplicable as not MP at the time
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Resigned after Theresa May's withdrawal agreement was published. Backed the Third Meaningful vote. Supports leaving the EU without a deal as her main priority, will not even try and renegotiate a new deal
Boris Johnson
Declared: 17th May 2019
MP Since: 2001-2008, 2015-
Cabinet Position: Foreign Secretary (2016-2018)
Other Significant Roles: Mayor of London (2008-2016)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal. Exit for 31st October
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Andrea Leadsom
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Peter Bone, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries, Gavin Williamson, Zac Goldsmith, Johnny Mercer, John Wittingdale, Jo Johnson, Liz Truss
Notes: Resigned after Theresa May's Chequers Plan to leave the EU. Supported Third Meaningful vote. Is prepared to leave with no deal. Long-time favourite to lead the Party. Currently under investigating for misconduct in public office for lying by saying that £350 million could be given to the NHS if Britain voted to leave the EU. Donald Trump, President of the US, has declared his backing for Boris Johnson
Jeremy Hunt
Declared: 24th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2010-2012), Health Secretary (2012-2018), Foreign Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Aim for deal but prepare for no deal (no deal should be avoided at almost all costs)
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Patrick McLoughlin
Notes: Backed all three of Theresa May's meaningful vote but is believed to have privately rejected the attempted fourth. Is prepared for no deal but believes it would be 'political suicide' if the country did leave the EU this way. Was a contemporary of David Cameron at Oxford.
Matt Hancock
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2018), Health Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Damien Green, Caroline Spellman
Notes: Seeks to compromise with Parliament and be more open than Theresa May to reach a deal. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes under Theresa May. Hancock has been described as being tech-savy and was the first MP to have their own app. Along with Raab, he started the 'Do not speak ill of a fellow Conservative pledge'. The Sun reports that Hancock was the one who approached the media to broadcast debates between the would-be leaders.
Dominic Raab
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Brexit Secretary (2018)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Aim for deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Michael Gove, unknown in membership vote
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: David Davis
Notes: Resigned as Brexit Secretary following disagreement with the withdrawal arrangement of exiting the EU. Voted for Theresa May's Third meaningful vote. Backs a deal but is prepared to leave with no deal. Along with Hancock, started the 'Thou Shall not speak ill will of a fellow Conservative' pledge.
Andrea Leadsom
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Environment Secretary (2016-2017), Leader of the House of Commons (2017-2019)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: No Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Herself
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Went for leader in 2016, made it to the final two before withdrawing in the membership vote after saying that she would make a better PM than Theresa because she has children. Backed the government on the three meaningful votes but resigned as she opposed the propositions for the fourth. Will not try and negotiate another deal and prefers to prepare for a managed exit.
Michael Gove
Declared: 26th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Education Secretary (2010-2014), Chief Whip (2014-2015), Justice Secretary (2015-2016), Environment Secretary (2017-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Himself until he was voted out in second ballot, then supported Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: Mel Stride
Other Significant Support: Edward Leigh, Nicky Morgan
Notes: Ran in 2016 after stating he would not. Came 3rd of 5th, eliminated in second ballot. Gove's performance was noted to be weaker as he had withdrawn his support of Boris Johnson only minutes before the candidate deadline. Leading figure in Vote Leave but has stayed in the cabinet and supported May in all three meaningful votes.
Sajid Javid
Declared: 27th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2014-2015), Business Secretary (2014-2015), Communities Secretary and Local Government Secretary (2015-2018), Home Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal and must leave 31st October
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Stephen Crabb (Ballot 1), Theresa May thereafter
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Remain but with lackluster in the 2016 campaign. Pledged to provide more police officers. Would be first Prime Minister of a minority ethnicity. Backed all three meaningful votes although believed to privately reject the fourth. Javid wishes to negotiate a deal but states that the UK will leave 31st October no matter what.
Kit Malthouse
Declared: 27th May 2019
MP Since: 2015
Cabinet Position: -
Other Significant Roles: Deputy Mayor of London (2008-2016)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: The Malthouse amendment put forward by Malthouse on one of the meaningful votes is the considered to be the most successful of the compromises put forward. Malthouse favours a deal or a 'managed no deal'. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes put forward by Theresa May.
James Cleverly
Declared: 29th May 2019
MP Since: 2015
Cabinet Position: -
Other Significant Roles: Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party (2018-2019)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Favours Deal but prepared for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: When questioned on lack of experience, Cleverly commented how neither Blair nor Cameron had any governmental experience and both were the more successful of the previous 4 Prime Ministers. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes. Believes no deal should not be the aim but it would not be disaster if it occurred.
Mark Harper
Declared: 30th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Chief Whip (2015-2016)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal at all costs, even extending the deadline past 31st October
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Believes that leaving the EU is necessary, but it has to be with a deal even if that means extending the deadline further. Only candidate who has never been part of Theresa May's government. Voted against Theresa May's first and second meaningful votes
Sam Gyimah
Declared: 2nd June 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: None
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Second Referendum with deal and no deal as well as remain on the ballot box. Would campaign for remain.
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinent Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Entered race to be the representative of the second referendum. Resigned as a minister over Brexit. Voted against Theresa May's withdrawal agreement all three times.
Rory Stewart
Declared: 5th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Positions: International Development Secretary (2019-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: David Guake
Other Significant Support: Sir Nicholas Soames, Kenneth Clarke
Notes: Wishes to find a compromise for a deal to leave the European Union. Supported May in all three meaningful votes. Has declared that he would not serve under Boris Johnson if he backed no deal. Has stated no deal would be disastrous for the country. Wishes to solve Brexit by meeting people across the country through gatherings organised by Twitter.
Esther McVey
Declared: 9th May 2019
MP Since: 2010-2015, 2017-
Cabinet Position: Work and Pensions Secretary (2018)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: No Deal (will not renegotiate a deal at all)
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Inapplicable as not MP at the time
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Resigned after Theresa May's withdrawal agreement was published. Backed the Third Meaningful vote. Supports leaving the EU without a deal as her main priority, will not even try and renegotiate a new deal
Boris Johnson
Declared: 17th May 2019
MP Since: 2001-2008, 2015-
Cabinet Position: Foreign Secretary (2016-2018)
Other Significant Roles: Mayor of London (2008-2016)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal. Exit for 31st October
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Andrea Leadsom
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Peter Bone, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries, Gavin Williamson, Zac Goldsmith, Johnny Mercer, John Wittingdale, Jo Johnson, Liz Truss
Notes: Resigned after Theresa May's Chequers Plan to leave the EU. Supported Third Meaningful vote. Is prepared to leave with no deal. Long-time favourite to lead the Party. Currently under investigating for misconduct in public office for lying by saying that £350 million could be given to the NHS if Britain voted to leave the EU. Donald Trump, President of the US, has declared his backing for Boris Johnson
Jeremy Hunt
Declared: 24th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2010-2012), Health Secretary (2012-2018), Foreign Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Aim for deal but prepare for no deal (no deal should be avoided at almost all costs)
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Patrick McLoughlin
Notes: Backed all three of Theresa May's meaningful vote but is believed to have privately rejected the attempted fourth. Is prepared for no deal but believes it would be 'political suicide' if the country did leave the EU this way. Was a contemporary of David Cameron at Oxford.
Matt Hancock
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2018), Health Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Damien Green, Caroline Spellman
Notes: Seeks to compromise with Parliament and be more open than Theresa May to reach a deal. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes under Theresa May. Hancock has been described as being tech-savy and was the first MP to have their own app. Along with Raab, he started the 'Do not speak ill of a fellow Conservative pledge'. The Sun reports that Hancock was the one who approached the media to broadcast debates between the would-be leaders.
Dominic Raab
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Brexit Secretary (2018)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Aim for deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Michael Gove, unknown in membership vote
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: David Davis
Notes: Resigned as Brexit Secretary following disagreement with the withdrawal arrangement of exiting the EU. Voted for Theresa May's Third meaningful vote. Backs a deal but is prepared to leave with no deal. Along with Hancock, started the 'Thou Shall not speak ill will of a fellow Conservative' pledge.
Andrea Leadsom
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Environment Secretary (2016-2017), Leader of the House of Commons (2017-2019)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: No Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Herself
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Went for leader in 2016, made it to the final two before withdrawing in the membership vote after saying that she would make a better PM than Theresa because she has children. Backed the government on the three meaningful votes but resigned as she opposed the propositions for the fourth. Will not try and negotiate another deal and prefers to prepare for a managed exit.
Michael Gove
Declared: 26th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Education Secretary (2010-2014), Chief Whip (2014-2015), Justice Secretary (2015-2016), Environment Secretary (2017-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Himself until he was voted out in second ballot, then supported Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: Mel Stride
Other Significant Support: Edward Leigh, Nicky Morgan
Notes: Ran in 2016 after stating he would not. Came 3rd of 5th, eliminated in second ballot. Gove's performance was noted to be weaker as he had withdrawn his support of Boris Johnson only minutes before the candidate deadline. Leading figure in Vote Leave but has stayed in the cabinet and supported May in all three meaningful votes.
Sajid Javid
Declared: 27th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2014-2015), Business Secretary (2014-2015), Communities Secretary and Local Government Secretary (2015-2018), Home Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal and must leave 31st October
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Stephen Crabb (Ballot 1), Theresa May thereafter
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Remain but with lackluster in the 2016 campaign. Pledged to provide more police officers. Would be first Prime Minister of a minority ethnicity. Backed all three meaningful votes although believed to privately reject the fourth. Javid wishes to negotiate a deal but states that the UK will leave 31st October no matter what.
Kit Malthouse
Declared: 27th May 2019
MP Since: 2015
Cabinet Position: -
Other Significant Roles: Deputy Mayor of London (2008-2016)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: The Malthouse amendment put forward by Malthouse on one of the meaningful votes is the considered to be the most successful of the compromises put forward. Malthouse favours a deal or a 'managed no deal'. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes put forward by Theresa May.
James Cleverly
Declared: 29th May 2019
MP Since: 2015
Cabinet Position: -
Other Significant Roles: Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party (2018-2019)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Favours Deal but prepared for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: When questioned on lack of experience, Cleverly commented how neither Blair nor Cameron had any governmental experience and both were the more successful of the previous 4 Prime Ministers. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes. Believes no deal should not be the aim but it would not be disaster if it occurred.
Mark Harper
Declared: 30th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Chief Whip (2015-2016)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal at all costs, even extending the deadline past 31st October
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Believes that leaving the EU is necessary, but it has to be with a deal even if that means extending the deadline further. Only candidate who has never been part of Theresa May's government. Voted against Theresa May's first and second meaningful votes
Sam Gyimah
Declared: 2nd June 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: None
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Second Referendum with deal and no deal as well as remain on the ballot box. Would campaign for remain.
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinent Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Entered race to be the representative of the second referendum. Resigned as a minister over Brexit. Voted against Theresa May's withdrawal agreement all three times.
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