Conservative Party Leadership - who has most backing 2nd June

Number of Supporters - 2nd June 2019
1. Boris Johnson = 30
2. Jeremy Hunt = 29
~ Michael Gove = 29
4. Dominic Raab = 23
5. Sajid Javid = 17
6. Matt Hancock = 12
7. Kit Maldhouse = 7
8. Esther McVey = 6
9. Mark Harper = 5
~ Rory Stewart = 5
11. Andrea Leadsom = 4
~ James Clevley  = 4
13. Sam Giyah = 1

Total MPs listed their support: 172 of 313 (55%)

With just over half of MPs listed their support, a picture can be taken on who will take the lead, however it could of course all change. In the way the contest works, only one candidate is eliminated at a time so although the top is of course important, it is the bottom that is more at this stage in terms of who will ultimately win.

With so many candidates entering, many will be on a similar number and many will be on a low number. Sam Giyah is currently the lowest, however he only revealed his candidacy today so his level of support is likely to be low at the moment. Remember that people will gain allegiances further on from candidates that have been eliminated and their supporters who match their view. My guess is that supporters of Giyah will go to Stewart, Hancock or Hunt upon them leaving. Clevley's support could go to any brexiteer. Leadsom's are likely to go to McVey.

Leadsom's performance is perhaps the most interesting. She is on the lower end despite coming second to Theresa May in the last leadership election. Boris is winning but only by a small margin and has only recently taken the lead from Hunt who has not received many endorsements recently. The top 4 candidates seem to be the only likely ones to end up in the top 2, Hunt is an almost definite as the only dealer of the 4, meaning the other dealers will back him. Johnson, Gove and Raab will battle it out for the other slot and whoever wins there is likely to be the new leader as the Conservative membership back a no deal.

Of the cabinet, three members or attendees have declared their backing. Liz Truss has for Johnson, Mel Stride for Gove and David Guake for Stewart. Of course, Hunt, Gove, Javid, Hancock and Stewart are Cabinet members themselves.

It will be very interesting to see what the actual result will end up being.