The results of the second ballot to chose the next Conservative Party Leader and thus also Prime Minister is as follows: (please note that despite not being eliminated, nor losing out of the candidates that made it through the threshold, Hancock has pulled out)
1. Boris Johnson = 126
2. Jeremy Hunt = 46
3. Michael Gove = 41
4. Rory Stewart = 37
5. Sajid Javid = 33
6. Dominic Raab = 30
The results of the second ballot have proved my prediction correct. The results of the first ballot do not necessarily reflect those of future ballots. This is of course largely down to the fact that there are MPs who have lost their chosen candidate. With McVey, Harper and Leadsom's defeat and Hancock's withdrawal there were 49 MPs who now had to vote for someone different. Assuming everyone who supported the successful candidates of the first ballot remained with them in the second ballot, the 49 MPs were disrupted to the the successful candidates as follows:
Boris Johnson: Gained 12 MPs
Jeremy Hunt: Gained 3 MPs
Michael Gove: Gained 4 MPs
Rory Stewart: Gained 18 MPs
Sajid Javid: Gained 10 MPs
Dominic Raab: Gained 3 MPs
Stewart, who only just got through the 17 minimum at the last round, has increased his performance by the most impressive margin. This is likely down to the fact that most of Hancock's supporters (although not Hancock himself) are have likely to have given their vote to Stewart as they had a similar position on Brexit. Javid also gained a significant support, as did Johnson who has received the backing of previous contestants McVey and Leadsom and Hancock and likely the majority of the former two's voters. Hunt, Gove and Raab made the least gains, and unfortunately for Raab that meant be knocked out of the competiton.
Under the old system of knocking out a candidate one by one, Raab would have been safe perhaps for a little while longer. He finished 4th in the first ballot of 10 contestants. Now, when down to six, he drops two places. Javid and more notably Stewart were on the tale end of the last ballot but both manage to make it through the 33 necessary margin, Javid just hitting it. Stewart could quite easily move further up the peddle stool.
Looking at the results of this ballot and it is quite clear that Boris is the leading favourite. His increase was not as large as Stewart's but it was second and he is even more in front than he was peviously. Raab and his supporters are likely to go to him in the next round, meaning that Johnson is almost certainly going to win the next ballot, if not every ballot. However the battle for number two is less clear. Hunt and Gove have been in the top 3 each ballot so far, but their margin of victory is small. Raab's supporters may back Gove as the leading brexiteer who is not Johnson, but others will not as they might think that Gove is not strong enough of a brexiteer.
The next ballot, tomorrow's ballot, the third round, returns to the old system. There is no threshold any more. The lowest supported candidate will be eliminated. At the moment that seems Javid, and in my opinion, that is likely to remain the case. He may well get a few more supporters from the 30 MPs now up for grabs, but it is unlikely to be enough. That being said, he would only need 4 to match Stewart, who is unlikely to get any new supporters from Raab's team but may well get some defections from other candidates. However, I do believe that Javid will be out of the running by tomorrow and then the tables will really start to turn. Javid is more similar to Johnson in his approach, however his supporters may not be. Javid's supporters are likely to shift to all candidates, meaning that the race to be the number two becomes more unpredictable. I say number two because I think it is highly unlikely that Johnson will not win. However, this is also not guaranteed. He does not have 50% of the vote, he has 40% and it is possible that he may do something that will lose him a few votes.
My original prediction of Hunt and Johnson may not be as certain. Stewart and Gove do have a shot at getting there. Javid, I feel, has had his run.
Until tomorrow...
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