Conservative Party Leadership: Ballot One

The Conservative Party's 313 MPs have cast their votes in the first ballot. Sam Gyimah did not make the necessary cut of 8 supporting MPs to compete so it was between 10 Tory members.
The results were:

1. Boris Johnson = 114
2. Jeremy Hunt = 43
3. Michael Gove = 37
4. Dominic Raab = 27
5. Sajid Javid = 23
6. Matt Hancock = 20
7. Rory Stewart = 19
8. Andrea Leadsom = 11
9. Mark Harper = 10
10. Esther McVey = 9

Theresa May, unlike David Cameron, did vote.

Under the new rules decided by the 1922 backbench committee, the top 7 make it through to the next round with Leadsom, Harper an McVey facing their elimination. Leadsom at the top of her field had 84 supporting MPs in 2016 but has lost a lot of that, perhaps due to her withdrawal resulting in Theresa May's appointment.

The results are definitely interesting. Firstly all MPs achieved more than their declared backings, meaning that there was little if any back stabbing in this round. It is also clear that Boris takes the lead, but it is not as comfortable as May's. He has secured roughly 1/3 of the vote and can still be removed from the top two. It is also important to remember that the winner of the 2001 and 2005 leadership elections did not enter the final two so it could not go as well for Boris as it did for May (in the campaign sense). This being said, it does appear that the competition is now a vote on who will go against Boris in the membership vote. This by the result appears to be Hunt, however he only has a small lead over Gove.

It is important to remember that now there are 29 MPs who need to reallocate their support as their chosen candidate has withdrawn. Harper, Leadsom and McVey may also now endorse who they wish to be the next leader of the Conservative party, and their respective votes may follow them. McVey and Leadsom where the most hardcore Brexiteers in the running, both aiming for a no deal with a deal not their goal. Harper fell into the same category of Hunt and Gove of aiming for a deal and perhaps extending the deadline but ultimately is prepared to leave without a deal. McVey and Leadsom's support is likely to go towards Boris but they may feel that their support should go on another candidate as the race is now more on who will take on Boris.

The next vote requires 33 MPs to back the candidate and that means that as it stands only three candidates will go through, however the 29 MPs now up for graps, plus the fact that other MPs will change their minds, means it is entirely possible that even the now losing candidate, Rory Stewart, could still make it through. Rory was the only one who was not expected to make it through who did, and this is perhaps down to his rise in grassroot campaigning, which has seem him rise to second place in the membership polls.

These are interesting times ahead and it will be very interesting to see what happens next.