Tomorrow those that have declared they attend to run have to submit their candidacy to the 1922 committee. Here is how it currently looks like per MP and their declared backers. Kit Malthouse, who had 7 backers and James Clevely who had 4 backers have pulled out of the race.
1. Boris Johnson = 59
2. Michael Gove = 35
3. Jeremy Hunt = 33
4. Dominic Raab = 24
5. Sajid Javid = 17
6. Matt Hancock = 13
7. Mark Harper = 7
8. Esther McVey = 6
~ Rory Stewart = 6
10. Andrea Leadsom = 5
11. Sam Gyimah = 4
Under new rules and regulations of the contest, each MP has to have 8 backers plus themselves, so 9 in total, to run as opposite to 2 and themselves. This means that Harper, McVey, Stewart, Leadsom and Gyimah are all at a difficult position. However, it is important to remember that not every MP has publicly endorsed a candidate yet. 202 MPs of 313 have declared so far, that's 65%, just over 2/3s.
The current look of numbers puts Johnson way ahead of anyone else, seeming that the competition is really who will be against Boris in the head to head with the membership vote. The look of numbers has evolved throughout the contest. Johnson, Gove, Hunt and Raab were all neck and neck in the beginning but now they have begun to separate and Raab is now more in line with Javid in terms of numbers.
The first round, due for this Thursday, requires 16 MPs, or 5% to back the candidate for them to precede. As it stands 5 will already pass the first round but it is unknown how many others will also make this. Only 6 MPs now they have the necessary backing to even enter at this stage, so survival beyond the first round is not a given. The second round requires 10% of support, so 32 MPs. At this stage, 3 candidates already have that support so know they will make it past that, but who knows about the rest. Remember loyalties will move when candidates have been eliminated. To assist in where support is likely to go once the candidate has been eliminated, I have put the candidates into four groups based off their Brexit standpoint.
No Deal
Esther McVey
Andrea Leadsom
Deal but prepare for no deal
Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Dominic Raab
Sajid Javid
Deal
Jeremy Hunt
Matt Hancock
Mark Harper
Rory Stewart
Second Referendum
Sam Gyimah
Supporters of Sam are likely to go to a dealer, Stewart and Hancock are more likely to go to Gyimah than any chance of no deal in my opinion. Javid is likely to go to a deal rather than aim for no deal and any dealers preparing for no deal would then transfer to no deal.
If we transferred numbers from the bottom 5 candidates who currently don't have enough support to even enter the contest to who I personally believe they will back the numbers begin to have a different look.
Boris Johnson = 61
Jeremy Hunt = 42
Michael Gove = 36
Dominc Raab = 31
Matt Hancock = 21
Sajid Javid = 18
Suddenly Javid now falls behind. This is just a guess but it shows that the candidates can all move around. If I was to continue this process and remove Javid's supporters, the look will change again. Javid's are unlikely to go to all of the other contenders, some will go to Hunt I believe as Javid is not the strongest Brexiteer. Raab's allegations of progoring Parliament rules him out in my eyes, as does Hancock.
Boris Johnson = 67
Jeremy Hunt = 48
Michael Gove = 42
Matt Hancock = 21
Hancock then gets himself eliminated under my rule book. His supporters are likely to go to Hunt, but some will go to Gove. Few will probably go to Johnson as well but it is likely to be the smallest amount.
Boris Johnson = 71
Jeremy Hunt = 58
Michael Gove = 49
This would result in Boris and Jeremy going to the membership. This is what I call the race to be between.
Finally who has big name supporters. C stands for Cabinet or someone who attends cabinet. Eliminated or Pulled out contested is marked by E. Ruth Davison is not included as she is not an MP but she is influential in her position. She backs Javid.
Boris Johnson - Steve Baker, Peter Bone, James Brokenshire (C), Alun Caires (C) James Cleverley (E), Nadine Dorries, Sir Michael Fallon, Zac Goldsmith, Chris Grayling (C), Jo Johnson, Julian Lewis (C), Johnny Mercer, Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Liz Truss (C), John Wittingdale, Gavin WIlliamson.
Michael Gove - Karen Bradley (C), Michael Fabricant, Damien Hinds (C), Edward Leigh, Sir Oliver Letwin, Nicky Morgan, Mel Stride (C)
Jeremy Hunt - Liam Fox (C), Sir Patrick McLoughlin, Amber Rudd (C)
Dominc Raab - David Davis
Sajid Javid - Stephen Crabb, Jeremy Wright (C)
Matt Hancock - Damien Green, Dame Caroline Spellman
Rory Stewart - Ken Clarke, David Guake (C), Sir Nicholas Soames
Sam Gyimah - Dominic Grieve, Philip Lee
Boris Johnson has the most amount of support from Cabinet members, with a total of 5 so far. Gove has three, Hunt 2 and Javid and Stewart one each.
It is interesting times ahead in deed. Of the 28 Cabinet Members that I am including (all Cabinet members plus the Chief Whip, Secretary to the Treasury, Leader of the House of Commons and Attorney General), 17 have declared including those running themselves.
The contest officially beginnings tomorrow.
Since 9th June, Penny Mordant, another Cabinet minister, declared her backing for Hunt.
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