This is a post anaylsing seats that are of a particular interest this election. In this election, every seat matters and many seats are expected to swap hands, many for the first time in their history.
Birkenhead
Background: Birkenhead is a Labour stronghold, with over 70% of the vote going their way. and it has been Labour since 1950. Frank Field has been the MP since 1979 but left the Labour Party in 2018 over antisemitism. He is running as a candidate for Birkehnhead Social Justice. Labour are challenging him. The Liberal Democrats are also standing, and as the constituency is a Labour held seat, the Brexit Party are also standing. The seat voted 52% in favour of leave and is thus not in the remain alliance, and therefore the Green Party is also standing. In normal circumstances (remember those?) this seat would never dream of going anywhere other than Labour but with a veteran MP Frank Field running separately from his party and backing Brexit in a Brexit backing constituency, this seat is another to watch.
Prediction: This seat is fundamentally a choice between MP or party. Until this election, voting for Labour and voting for Frank Field were a simultaneous choice. This is not the case anymore. The question is whether the people of Birkenhead are more loyal to their party or to their MP. 76.9% of the population voted for Labour in the constituency in 2017 (higher than Corbyn's vote share in Islington North of 60.5%), one of the most pro Labour seats in the country - in fact the second safest seat in the country- but it's once clear cut Labour position is now being called into question. This seat is definitely a battle between Field and Labour. The Conservatives polled less than 20% in 2017 so their chances are practically non-existent. However their votes are still important. Many Conservatives in the area are highly likely aware their vote means very little voting Tory but now they do have a chance to make an impact and they may vote for Field on the basis that he is pro-Brexit (forgetting he is traditional Labour in almost all fields). The Brexit Party in most cases is likely to do better than the UKIP vote in 2015 but here it is unlikely. UKIP's perforamance in its 2015 hayday in this constituency was not that strong, so the Brexit Party are unlikely to make much impact. The Brexit Party's position of being the pro-Brexit Labour party is also taken by Frank Field, meaning the Brexit Party are even less likely to do much at all in this seat. The seat also is quite weak for the Greens. My prediction is that Field will take a lot of the old UKIP vote and a significant chunk of Labour as well as potential Brexit Party support but it will not be enough to defeat Labour. However what is important to remember that in the second strongest Labour seat in the country, it is being run for its money for the first and perhaps only time it ever will.
2019 Predicted Victor: Labour gain from Birkenhead Social Justice (originally Labour)
Broxtowe
Background: Broxtowe is the current seat of Anna Soubry, the former Conservative MP now leader of Change UK. She is hoping to retain her seat this December. Broxtowe is quite a marginal seat for the Conservatives, a battle between them and Labour in the area is common. Broxtowe voted to leave by 54% to 46% and Anna Soubry is a second referendum candidate, harming her record. The Liberal Democrats have decided to stand down in the seat to boost Soubry's chances but the Green Party have not on the basis of Soubry's green voting record (i.e. it is not very green). As the seat was elected in as a Conservative on in 2017, the Brexit Party are not standing. There is an indpedent standing as well as two other minor parties, the English Democrats and the Militant Elvis Anti-HS2 party. For the purposes of predicting, the independent candidate and the two minor parties will be ignored as they are unlikely to have much to any effect on the result of Broxtowe.
Prediction: In a seat that voted more in favour of leave than the national result and a remain MP, it is highly unlikely Soubry will keep her seat. It is true that the Lib Dem withdrawal will give her some credibility, as will some slightly out of touch Conservative voters who may read her name thinking she is their candidate (this sounds stupid but this is likely to give her votes). Soubry also has the advantage that she has been the MP for the area for the past 9 years, thus she has the local support and local record (it is important to remember the constituency function of an MP as well as their national image). This seat however is unlikely to remain in her hands however. In 2017, the Liberal Democrats secured 4% in Broxtowe, weaker than their national result. Soubry is likely to do better than that for the reasons discussed and the fact that the position of Soubry and the Lib Dems (although not the same, that is important to highlight), has become more media prone will also likely give her boost, meaning she is going to do better than 4%. As I have stated however, Soubry is unlikely to hold the seat so who does it go to? Of course although Soubry has the seat, the seat actually has been in the Conservative's hands since 2010, and in 2017, their hold of the seat went up and it was higher than the national average. This does not make the seat a safe Conservative one however. In 2017, the gap between the Conservative and Labour vote was narrowed to just 1.5%, meaning Labour are also in for the taking of this seat. Soubry being a former Conservative is likely to gain her some Tory remain voters so the question largely is how many remain Conservatives (nationally that's just under 1/3 of the 2017 supporters) will leave the party and back Soubry. My guess is that it will be quite small but it will be enough for Labour to take the seat. Of course it is important to remember that Labour too could lose votes to Soubry on the basis of their incoherent Brexit position, but the effect on their vote is likely to be highly minimal. Thus my prediction is that Broxtowe will go to Labour.
2019 Predicted winner: Labour gain from Change UK (originally Conservative)
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