Doctor Who Series 11 Review #4 - Arachnids in the UK by Chris Chibnall

Firstly a disclaimer. It has been over a year since this episode came out, and thus before my rewatch of it today my mind has pondered on this and the series as a whole. Thus I have more of an established view than I have done for reviews previously.

Arachnids in the UK by Chris Chibnall

Arachnids in the UK is the third episode and story of the eleventh series of the modern era and the 37th season of the series overall. It is also the third episode and story of the 13th Doctor.

Arachnids in the UK is a classic base-under-siege story, my favourite type of story. The premise behind it - giant spiders - is hardly original but had the recipe to be quite a good story, however the lack of interest in the characters, corny dialogue and the amount of plot holes in this weakens it considerably.

Doctor Rating

13th Doctor - 6/10 - Jodie's performance was far from terrible, but the dialogue she comes up with, albeit not her fault, is sometimes annoying, thus she can't achieve any credible score

Companion Rating

Ryan Sinclair - 6/10 - Ryan felt like a waste of space in this episode frankly. At times he was just making shadow puppets in the background like some prepubescent teen. Once more the story of his dad pops up and interferes with the story.

Yaz Khan - 6/10 - Even in an episode that is built around Yaz's family, Yaz once more feels like she is part of the furniture. This is part of the problem of having a series that has too many characters, you just can not invest in them and this renders the entire episode to being unsatisfactory at best.

Graham O'Brien - 7/10 - Perhaps the only interesting character in this episode. His scenes with Grace were odd but he was able to act the grief well, as you would expect from the brilliant actor Bradley Walsh. As this episode had a large and uninteresting side-cast, Graham was also branded relatively useless.

Enemy Rating

The Spiders - 6/10 - Giant spiders is not anything special but they were effective, however not really enough. They could have been far more used and far more scary. The basis of them being not really an enemy and confused was nice but it was the whole fulfront of the episode as it is every week.

Story rating

Story - 5/10 - The story is, on paper, unimaginative but good. However the plot holes are thick and fast. The spiders were trapped in the convenient panic room, which was only mentioned earlier in the episode in order to fulfill its task at the end. The episode also forgets about the other spiders that were not in the hotel. The episode title also does reflect the limited scale of the giant spiders. Lastly, not wanting to kill the spiders is a good message, but slowly starving them is a rather odd way of going about a merciless death. Shooting them would have been far kinder.

Scariness - 8/10 - The spiders were scary, but they could have been far more. They did kill and they were menacing but the constant message that they are actually the victim, lowers their menacing tone.

Seriousness - 7/10 - There was death, it has to be said but the scale of it felt minimal. Once the side characters had all been killed there was little expectation that anyone else was going to die.

Humour - 3/10 - The attempts at humour were funny for the opposite effect of what they were meant to be. The stormzy ending was atrocious to say the least.

Continuity - 5/10 - the plot holes within the episode as established above renders this to have a score so low.

Rest of cast performance

Robertson- 5/10 - A clear attempt of Trump in Doctor Who, constantly banging on about why the Doctor was there. He was a mere characteur with little to no substance.

Naija Khan - 6/10 - Bland, like everyone seems to be in this episode

Dr Jade McIntrye - 6/10 - ditto

Total: 70/130

Series 11 Rankings:
The Woman who Fell to Earth: 64.29%

The Ghost Monument: 62.14%

Rosa: 73.63%

Arachnids in the UK: 53.85%

Scores out of 10:

The Woman who Fell to Earth: 6/10

The Ghost Monument: 3/10 (-3)

Rosa: 7/10

Arachnids in the UK: 4/10

So far this series has been rather disappointing, which is clear from the overall series impression I gave when it actually came out. The score for Arachnids in the UK is the lowest of the series, despite it not being the worst episode in the series in my opinion. I think the low score does have something to do with the fact that my poor view of the episode and the series as a whole has lingered in my mind for a while, and as you look at the past with a magnifying glass, the bad just gets worse. I hope to do episode 5 as soon as possible.

2019 Film Ranking

It has become an annual tradition for me to rank the films I have seen in the year. I have not managed to have seen as many as previous years but my ranking goes as follows

8. Ad Astra - this space thriller was enjoyable but had too many plot holes to count. It was not a stand-out space thriller that we have had of yet, but it was by no means a terrible film, just not a fantastic one.

7. Stan and Ollie - This was an enjoyable film based around Laurel and Hardy, which was very interesting to watch.

6. The Joker - Already at this point we at films that have been  highly enjoyable for me, and ones I would watch again. The Joker is placed here simply due to its graphical nature, which although I admired, is not to my taste

5. Avengers Endgame - This was arguably the biggest film of the year - and although some may be surprised by how, in relative terms, it is ranked in the bottom half of the films I have seen this year, I thought it was very good. If I was a bigger marvel fan than I am, I reckon this would be far higher. I got the easter eggs, but they meant less to me. This was a good film.

4. Spiderman: Far from Home - I often find superhero films to be much of a muchness but I found this one to be quite different and enjoyable, to the extent that I would say it is a better film than Avengers, but it does not quite have the hype around it.

3. Last Christmas - This Christmas film based on the lyrics of George Michael's Christmas classic, was a very enjoyable film with a very interesting twist. Really heart-hitting film.

2. Toy Story 4 - I have to say the release of additional Toy Story film after what I thought was a satisfying conclusion to the story did give me reservations. However, although I still think it was not necessary, the story was a very good epilogue to the trilogy and really enjoyable

1. Star Wars the Rise of Skywalker - As a Star Wars film it comes here almost by default. It was a good film, and although there were issues regarding it, it was a film that overall was a fitting end to the 42-year saga.

Star Wars - New Film Ranking

In case you have not realised, there is a new Star Wars film in town, Star Wars Episode IX, the final chapter of the Skywalker sage.

I thought this was an overall good film, and wrapped up things well. However, I felt it did not connect with the previous films in the sequel trilogy, mainly through the return of Palpatine, which felt random. I did not like the fact that it was unexplained on his return.

I thoroughly enjoyed the relationship of the characters. Rey, Finn and Poe were all highly likeable in this film. I felt that Rose probably should have had a larger role to play, she could have also have gone on the main mission, although that would have made it more crowded.

C 3P0 had his biggest role in Star Wars since the original trilogy, and R2 D2  was more present than the previous two sequel trilogy films. I am pleased by this as I thought the two had been previously side-lined. The humour involving the two was also excellent.

The handling of Leia was done exceptionally well. She appeared in just the right amount of scenes, and still had a role to play in the redemption of her son. Speaking of which, although it is very much a repeat of Return of the Jedi, I did think the redemption of Kylo Ren was necessary and well done. This whole trilogy was more of him turning to the light again, rather the opposite of Anakin in the prequel trilogy. Han Solo's cameo was also well done, being a mirror of his death in the Fore Awakens.

This film bought us 4 new main characters. I thought all 4 were likeable. Jana and Zori Bliss allowed us to explore the pasts of Finn and Poe. D-O was a droid companion for BB8, and Pryde provided us with an old age and menacing imperial that Hux could no longer be after the Last Jedi.

The film also had some other familiar faces of old-age past. Lando was back, and was also a great character, bridging this trilogy with the original. Chewbacca of course was in it as he had been in the previous films, and Luke made a brief appearance as a Jedi ghost, in much the same way as Yoda in the Last Jedi. Nien Numb was back as he has been for the sequels. Aftab Ackbar continued his father's legacy. The cameos of Wedge Antilles and Wicket also worked well, and were not just there for the basis of fan service. Wicket's son being played by Warwick Davis' son was also a nice touch. The voices of the Jedi past was also an interesting feature. Aside from the known Jedi that we know can speak through the dead, it was a surprise to hear the voices of Ahsoka, Kana, Adi Galia, Aayla Secura and Luminara Unduli. This also confirms the death of Ahsoka.

Overall, I enjoyed the film but I felt it did make the entire trilogy sort of unnecessary. It ended very much the same way as Return of the Jedi. That being said, it was a good film and the ending was very touching and fitting.

My New Film ranking following The Rise of Skywalker:

1. Revenge of the Sith
2. Return of the Jedi
3. A New Hope
4. Rogue One
5. The Rise of Skywalker
6. The Empire Strikes Back
7. The Last Jedi
8. The Force Awakens
9. Attack of the Clones
10. Solo
11. The Phantom Menace
12. The Clone Wars

General Election 2019: Results and Analysis

On 12th December 2019, Britain went to the polls for the fourth time in four years. Boris Johnson called the election to get Brexit done and to solve the impasse that had occurred in parliament. Unlike his predecessor, Theresa May, it paid off, giving him the majority he needs to deliver Brexit

The Results 

The United Kingdom - by seats (650)

Conservatives = 365 seats (+48)
Labour = 202 seats (-60)
SNP = 48 seats (+13)
Liberal Democrats = 11 seats (-1)
DUP = 8 seats (-2)
Sinn Fein = 7 seats (-)
Plaid Cmyru = 4 seats (-)
SDLP = 2 seats (+2)
Green Party = 1 seat (-)
Alliance = 1 seat (+1)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)
Change UK = 0 seats (-)
UUP = 0 seats (-)
Plus the Speaker of the House of Commons

England - by seats (533)

Conservatives = 345 seats (+48)
Labour = 180 seats (-47)
Liberal Democrats = 7 seats (-1)
Green = 1 seat (-1)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)
Change UK = (-)
Plus the Speaker of the House of Commons

Scotland - by seats (59)

SNP = 48 seats (+13)
Conservatives = 6 seats (-7)
Liberal Democrats = 4 seats (-)
Labour = 1 seat (-6)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

Wales - by seats (40)

Labour = 22 seats (-6)
Conservatives = 14 seats (+6)
Plaid Cmyru = 4 seats (-)
Liberal Democrats = 0 seats (-)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats

Northern Ireland (18)

DUP = 8 seats (-2)
Sinn Fein = 7 seats (-)
SDLP = 2 seats (+2)
Alliance = 1 seat (-1)
UUP = 0 seats (-)

East Midlands (46)

Conservatives = 36 seats (+5)
Labour = 10 seats (-5)
Liberal Democrat = 0 seats (-)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)
Change UK = 0 seats (-)

East of England (58)

Conservatives = 52 seats (+2)
Labour = 5 seats (-2)
Liberal Democrats = 1 seat (+1/-1)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

London (73)

Labour = 49 seats (+2/-2)
Conservatives = 21 seats (+1/-1)
Liberal Democrats = 3 seats (+1/-1)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)
Change UK = 0 seats (-)

North East England (29)

Labour = 18 seats (-8)
Conservatives = 11 seats (+8)
Liberal Democrats = 0 seats (-)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

North West England (75)

Labour = 42 seats (-12)
Conservatives = 32 seats (+12)
Liberal Democrats = 1 seat (-)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

South East England (84)

Conservatives = 72 seats (+1)
Labour - 8 seats (-1)
Liberal Democrats = 1 seat (-1)
Green Party = 1 seat (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

South West England (55)

Conservatives = 48 seats (+1)
Labour = 6 seats (-1)
Liberal Democrats = 1 seat (-)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

West Midlands (59)

Conservatives = 43 seats (+8)
Labour = 16 seats (-8)
Liberal Democrats = 0 seats (-)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

Yorkshire and the Humber (54)

Labour = 29 seats (-8)
Conservatives = 25 seats (+8)
Liberal Democrats = 0 seats (-)
Green Party = 0 seats (-)
Brexit Party = 0 seats (-)
UKIP = 0 seats (-)

United Kingdom - vote share

Conservatives = 43.6% (+1.2%)
Labour = 32.1% (-7.9%)
Liberal Democrats = 11.6% (+4.2%)
SNP = 3.9% (+0.8%)
Green = 2.7% (1.1%)
Brexit Party = 2.0% (+2.0%)
DUP = 0.8% (-0.1%)
Sinn Fein = 0.6% (-0.2%)
Plaid Cmyru = 0.5% (-)
Alliance = 0.4% (+0.2%)
SDLP = 0.4% (+0.1%)
UUP = 0.3% (-)
UKIP = 0.1% (-1.8%)
Change UK = 0.0% (-)

England - vote share

Conservative = 47.2% (+1.2%)
Labour = 33.9% (-8.0%)
Liberal Democrats = 12.4% (+2.8%)
Green Party = 2.2% (+1.2%)
Brexit Party = 2.0% (+2.0%)
UKIP = 0.1% (-2.0%)
Change UK = 0.0% (-)

Scotland - vote share

SNP = 45.0% (+8.1%)
Conservatives = 25.1% (-3.5%)
Labour = 18.6% (-8.5%)
Liberal Democrats = 9.5% (+2.8%)
Green Party = 1.0% (+0.8%)
Brexit Party = 0.5% (+0.5%)
UKIP = 0.1% (-0.1%)

Wales - vote share

Labour = 40.9% (-8.0%)
Conservatives = 36.1% (+2.5%)
Plaid Cmyru = 9.9% (-0.5%)
Liberal Democrats = 6.0% (+1.5%)
Brexit Party = 5.4% (+5.4%)
Green Party = 1.0% (+0.7%)
UKIP = 0.0% (-2.0%)

Northern Ireland - vote share

DUP = 30.6% (-5.4%)
Sinn Fein = 22.6% (-6.7%)
SDLP = 14.1% (+3.1%)
Alliance = 16.8% (+8.8%)
UUP = 11.7% (+1.4%)

Seats that have changed hands

51 seats went from Labour to Conservative
7 seats went from Conservative to SNP
6 seats went from Labour to SNP
3 seats went from Liberal Democrat to Conservative
2 seats went from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
1 seat went from Liberal Democrat to SNP
1 seat went from SNP to Liberal Democrat
1 seat went from Conservative to Labour
1 seat went from DUP to Sinn Fein
1 seat went from independent to Alliance
1 seat went from Sinn Fein to SDLP
1 seat went from DUP to SDLP

Clearly from these states show that the majority of seats that swapped were from Labour to Conservative. Some of these were marginals. Some were not. Take Leigh and Durham North West for example. The Conservatives did not even target these seats as the Labour majority was so deep and considered so safe. They have now gone blue. Rother Valley has been Labour for 101 years, it is now Conservative. Bishop Aukland has never been Conservative before, and now it has a strong majority. Even Tony Blair's former seat, Sedgefield, has gone Tory. 10 of these seats have not been Conservative since before the Second World War, and a further 12 have not been Conservative for over 40 years. The Conservatives have destroyed the Red Wall. This result is truly unprecedented. It has allowed the Conservatives to win a joint record 4th election and get their fourth highest landslide since the war. This is also the highest percentage for any one party since 1970.

The SNP also dominated in Scotland, taking from the Conservatives and Labour. Their dominance is not quite their 2015 height but is still impressive. What is interesting to note is that they did lose a seat, to the Liberal Democrats. This was not expected. However, the SNP make up for that by taking the leader of the Liberal Democrats' seat, Jo Swinson.

The Liberal Democrats failed to take as many seats as they hoped and were predicted. They ended up taking none from Labour. The Lib Dems only managed to take two seats of the tories, but the tories managed to take 3 seats off them. The Liberal Democrats were close on many occasions but failed to make very little breakthrough.

Labour managed one gain and did manage to hold on to a few marginals in the South but that is as far as their success story goes. This is their worst defeat since 1935. Their heartlands, seats that were previously considered never to leave them have done just that.

MPs who have lost their seats

As in every election, a number of high profile MPs have lost their seats

Jo Swinson - Jo Swinson was definitely the highest profile candidate to lose her seat. Jo Swinson started the campaign saying she was a candidate for Prime Minister, predicting her party to get over 100 seats in the election - a record for them since before the Second World War. This did not translate. Jo Swinson has lost her seat and thus had to resign as leader of the Liberal Democrats. She had been an MP since 2005-2015, and again from 2017.

Nigel Dodds - Swinson was not the only leader to lose their seat. Nigel Dodds, the leader of the DUP in Westminster lost to Sinn Fein. Belfast North had never voted for a nationalist candidate before, but they were not pro-Brexit, leaving Dodds out of the picture. He had been an MP since 2001.

Anna Soubry - The third leader to lose her seat in this election. The entire Change UK were wiped from the electoral map as expected. Soubry came third in Broxtowe, losing to her former party, the Conservatives. She had been an MP since 2010.

Zac Goldsmith - Goldsmith was one of the few Tory casualties, but he was a cabinet minister, with responsibility for the environment. He was previously the failed candidate to succeed Boris as mayor of London. Goldsmith had previously been well known for his environment campaigns and pressure on the Conservatives. He has lost his seat to the Liberal Democrats. He had been an MP since 2010-2015 and again from 2017.

Dennis Skinner - the would be commons longest serving MP has lost his seat of Bolsover. A seat he has represented since 1970. Skinner is a well known MP, with the nickname 'Beast of Bolsover' and his quips in the Queen's Speech are well known. His departure highlights the changing political landscape of the United Kingdom.

Caroline Flint - Former cabinet minister under Tony Blair lost what was once considered a safe Labour seat in Don Valley. She has been an MP since 1997. Flint is a centrist and a respecter of Brexit, however the leadership's opposite policies has meant she has lost her seat

Dominic Grieve - Grieve was one of the few Conservatives who backed a second referendum and he ran as an independent after losing the Tory whip. He came second, with the highest number of votes for any of the independents running, but he has still lost. He had been an MP since 1997

David Guake - Guake was Justice Secretary earlier this year but resigned when Boris Johnson took over from Theresa May. He was also expelled from the Conservatives due to his opposition to no deal. He ran as an independent and lost his seat. He had been an MP since 2005.

Chuka Umuna - The once high-profile remainer who left Labour due to their brexit position and antisemitism to form Change UK then join the Lib Dems has also been removed from the Commons. All of the many Lib Dem defectors from both Labour (3) and the Conservatives (4) lost their seats in this election

Tom Brake - The Liberal Democrat spokesperson for Brexit and MP since 2001 lost his London seat to the Conservatives

Laura Pidcock - Shadow Secretary of State for Employment Rights has also lost her seat, one she had only had since 2017

Frank Field - Field left the Labour Party in 2018 after representing them in Birkenhead since 1979. He ran as an independent and also lost his seat.

Lesley Laird - The Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland also lost her seat to the SNP. She had represented it since 2017.


The Results and Analysis  by party






The Results and Analysis  by party - how we got here and how we got the results

Let's start with the Conservatives. Brexit is often seen as the brainchild of the Conservatives. They have battle Eurosceptism in their party since we entered the EU's predecessor the ECC. It's an issue that has ended two of their leaders careers and has been a large, if not the largest part of the downfall of other issues. This internal party political issue, with a bit of extra barrage from Farage, resulted in the 2016 EU referendum (although it is important to remember that the in-out question originated, ironically with the Liberal Democrats, with Jo Swinson herself advocating for it in a speech in the House of Commons). Of course the result of the 2016 referendum has subdued almost everything since then. Every party agreed that it would be a winner takes all, whichever side got over 50%, they would be the winners. Leave won, but the result was tight. It was the challenge of Theresa May to do her duty, despite her pro-European stance and leave the European Union, as the people argued. Theresa May, in an effort to please the heavily Eurosceptic wing of her party, the 28 strong ERG led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and also the 7 pro-remain second referendum wing, lead by Dominic Grieve. Due to the minority government formed after the previous abysmal campaign and loss for the Conservatives, Theresa May had to listen to these 35, but there was no pleasing both. She also had to please her new found friends in the DUP. This resulted in her getting a deal, with the dreaded backstop. The backstop meant that the DUP and the ERG would not support it. The Liberal Democrats and pro-second referendum Labour and Conservatives would not back it on the principle that no deal ever negotiated and agreed by all 28 European Union states would be better than remaining. Labour would not back the deal either from the leadership end, although their reasoning was often vague. It is now the position of many former Labour MPs as off this December that they should have backed May's deal but now is too late for that. Due to the worst defeat in parliamentary history occurring under May and her deal failing to pass, she was in a difficult position. Following the dreadful European elections for her party, which saw it come 5th and the worst result for them since 1834 and the removal of backing of both her Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt respectively, May resigned. Following this we got a new leadership election. Boris beat Jeremy Hunt almost 2-1. We were leaving the European Union under a new deal, and despite many doubting, including his own allies, Boris got one without the backstop. This meant that when his deal was bought back to Parliament, for the first time, something Brexit related had a majority. However, MPs blocked the opportunity for it to be passed before 31st October. Thus, under the Benn Act, Boris had to ask for an extension. The vote on the deal revealed that many who claimed they were only anti no-deal rather than anti-brexit, were not entirely telling the truth, as they voted against the deal. An election was called. It was the people versus its institutions in the name of democracy. All those that voted leave, 52% of the population, 17.4 million people, and all reamainers who had accepted the result or simply wanted to move on. The centrist policies in combination of getting Brexit done, secured the landslide for Boris Johnson. However, he gained only 2% of the popular vote from Theresa May's 2017 performance. So this election victory is more down to Labour's collapse than Tory success, however the Conservatives did up their share of the vote significantly in the Northern Red Wall, and this has to also be down to themselves, even if it is just a little bit.

Labour have always found themselves in a difficult position regarding Brexit. Party members are strongly remain, but voters are split, more so than Tory voters. Labour still wanted to leave with a deal until September this year, where the decision to go for a second referendum was made. It was this decision which doomed them. The same traditional strong Labour heartlands were the same that were most heavily leave-orientated. It was not just this that was the issue however. It was Corbyn and his Chrismtas wish list too. Labour voters are traditionally patriotic, and Corbyn had sided with the enemy too many times for them to like. They also did not trust socialism, as there is not a single example of it benefiting the many not the few. Then there were the allegations of antisemitism. All of this together was a cocktail of disaster. Corbyn remaining on for a few more months is also unlikely to help the party, nor is claiming that he won the arguments. If he won the arguments I would be interested to know what losing them looked like. How did Labour enter this mess? Well, through a bombardment of left-wing members, (and Conservatives) joining and voting in a socialist, a policy the party was slowly moving away from since 1983 when they realised that it did not work and did not appeal to the many, but the few. The second referendum was from internal party pressure. Labour are now in an internal battle. Socialism verses social democracy. Socialists blame Brexit and say the socialist message should continue: Corbynism beyond Corbyn. Social democrats blame socialism that inteferes with their European idealism. The way forward is to elect a Brexit supporting social democrat. The issue is that the trend goes that the closer to the centre you are the more you like the EU. So this type of person is difficult to come across. If they elected a socialist again then they lose support, if they elect a pro-EU candidate, they lose support. Labour have to think fast to ensure they ever have a chance of getting in again.

The Liberal Democrats had a disaster of a night. Jo Swinson started the campaign claiming she was a candidate to be Prime Minister. It is true the Lib Dems had prevailed above the 20% rate in the polls for the first time since entering the coalition but they campaigned terribly. Firstly, they went with their revoke Article 50 message. This only appealed to the extreme remainers and alienated any brexit supporter who would traditionally feel they were liberal (a la John Cleese). Secondly, the Liberal Democrats spent too long attacking Labour. They wanted to usurp Labour to become the Conservative main challenger. However them doing this made them appear to be Yellow tories, the very message they had just shacked off. The third mistake was campaigning around Jo Swinson. Campaigning around a person does not work because the more people see them, the more they dislike them. The Liberal Democrats blame their defeat on Corbyn. They see that people feared him more than Brexit so voted Conservative as it was the best party to defeat Labour. There is some truth to this message also. The Lib Dems now need to pick a new leader and choose the path they fight. If they stick with their pro-remain stance even now, then they risk becoming a fringe movement.

The SNP also did well, taking 13 seats. Sturgeon now proclaims that this is a mandate for independence, something that the Minister of the Union (an additional title Boris has given himself) has repeatedly declined. Boris is unlikely to back down on this, which in turn is only going to make the debate even more fiery. This debate is likely to be the main one of the next parliament.

The Brexit Party failed to pick up any seats, a tradition for Nigel Farage. Farage did not even seem bemused by this at all. The Brexit Party won the European elections this year, but in this election they got 2%. Although Brexit is happening and will be over by the end of 2020, Farage is still not leaving the political field. Now he wants to lead a reform party. The success of Farage depends on the failure of Boris. If Boris does not please the North, and Labour elect another unelectable figure, then those that feel let down by both the traditional parties may well turn to him. This we will have to wait and see.

The Green Party had a record breaking year this year in the European Elections, topping the Conservatives and coming 4th. Since then, their support has dwindled. They were hoping to get additional seats in this election, but ended up with the one they have held since 2010. The Greens are such a minority party that this election will hardly change them. With climate change occurring rapidly, their support is likely to increase again at some point in this next parliament.

UKIP still contested this election, although their far-right politics could not be stomached by almost no one. UKIP lost all their representation in the European Parliament as they were usurped by many of their former colleagues that found the Islamophobia unbearable and set up the Brexit Party. UKIP is officially 0.1% away from death. As they have now found themselves being the principle racist party, they may well find that they keep up their limited support.

The Liberal Democrats may have lost their leader, but Change UK can do one better, they lost their leader and their entire party. All members of Change UK lost their seat in this election, seeing their defeat which was slowly happening since they formed. Change UK was only formed on one thing - a second referendum. The 11 original members would have struggled to remain together beyond that- 8 Labour MPs and 3 Conservatives. Many aspects resulted in Change UK's collapse. Firstly, they failed to pick a leader and do anything for a while, meaning that the Liberal Democrats could become the principle remain party. Change UK could have replaced them, the Brexit Party managed to take over UKIP's dominance is evidence of this. After failing at the European elections, 6 members left, and then 2 more did not stand for reelection. Anna Soubry did the best of the bunch, picking up 8% of the vote.

General Election 2019: Seats to look out for

This is a post anaylsing seats that are of a particular interest this election. In this election, every seat matters and many seats are expected to swap hands, many for the first time in their history.

Birkenhead

Background: Birkenhead is a Labour stronghold, with over 70% of the vote going their way. and it has been Labour since 1950. Frank Field has been the MP since 1979 but left the Labour Party in 2018 over antisemitism. He is running as a candidate for Birkehnhead Social Justice. Labour are challenging him. The Liberal Democrats are also standing, and as the constituency is a Labour held seat, the Brexit Party are also standing. The seat voted 52% in favour of leave and is thus not in the remain alliance, and therefore the Green Party is also standing. In normal circumstances (remember those?) this seat would never dream of going anywhere other than Labour but with a veteran MP Frank Field running separately from his party and backing Brexit in a Brexit backing constituency, this seat is another to watch.

Prediction: This seat is fundamentally a choice between MP or party. Until this election, voting for Labour and voting for Frank Field were a simultaneous choice. This is not the case anymore. The question is whether the people of Birkenhead are more loyal to their party or to their MP. 76.9% of the population voted for Labour in the constituency in 2017 (higher than Corbyn's vote share in Islington North of 60.5%), one of the most pro Labour seats in the country - in fact the second safest seat in the country- but it's once clear cut Labour position is now being called into question. This seat is definitely a battle between Field and Labour. The Conservatives polled less than 20% in 2017 so their chances are practically non-existent. However their votes are still important. Many Conservatives in the area are highly likely aware their vote means very little voting Tory but now they do have a chance to make an impact and they may vote for Field on the basis that he is pro-Brexit (forgetting he is traditional Labour in almost all fields). The Brexit Party in most cases is likely to do better than the UKIP vote in 2015 but here it is unlikely. UKIP's perforamance in its 2015 hayday in this constituency was not that strong, so the Brexit Party are unlikely to make much impact. The Brexit Party's position of being the pro-Brexit Labour party is also taken by Frank Field, meaning the Brexit Party are even less likely to do much at all in this seat. The seat also is quite weak for the Greens. My prediction is that Field will take a lot of the old UKIP vote and a significant chunk of Labour as well as potential Brexit Party support but it will not be enough to defeat Labour. However what is important to remember that in the second strongest Labour seat in the country, it is being run for its money for the first and perhaps only time it ever will.

2019 Predicted Victor: Labour gain from Birkenhead Social Justice (originally Labour)


Broxtowe

Background: Broxtowe is the current seat of Anna Soubry, the former Conservative MP now leader of Change UK. She is hoping to retain her seat this December. Broxtowe is quite a marginal seat for the Conservatives, a battle between them and Labour in the area is common. Broxtowe voted to leave by 54% to 46% and Anna Soubry is a second referendum candidate, harming her record. The Liberal Democrats have decided to stand down in the seat to boost Soubry's chances but the Green Party have not on the basis of Soubry's green voting record (i.e. it is not very green). As the seat was elected in as a Conservative on in 2017, the Brexit Party are not standing. There is an indpedent standing as well as two other minor parties, the English Democrats and the Militant Elvis Anti-HS2 party. For the purposes of predicting, the independent candidate and the two minor parties will be ignored as they are unlikely to have much to any effect on the result of Broxtowe.

Prediction: In a seat that voted more in favour of leave than the national result and a remain MP, it is highly unlikely Soubry will keep her seat. It is true that the Lib Dem withdrawal will give her some credibility, as will some slightly out of touch Conservative voters who may read her name thinking she is their candidate (this sounds stupid but this is likely to give her votes). Soubry also has the advantage that she has been the MP for the area for the past 9 years, thus she has the local support and local record (it is important to remember the constituency function of an MP as well as their national image). This seat however is unlikely to remain in her hands however. In 2017, the Liberal Democrats secured 4% in Broxtowe, weaker than their national result. Soubry is likely to do better than that for the reasons discussed and the fact that the position of Soubry and the Lib Dems (although not the same, that is important to highlight), has become more media prone will also likely give her boost, meaning she is going to do better than 4%. As I have stated however, Soubry is unlikely to hold the seat so who does it go to? Of course although Soubry has the seat, the seat actually has been in the Conservative's hands since 2010, and in 2017, their hold of the seat went up and it was higher than the national average. This does not make the seat a safe Conservative one however. In 2017, the gap between the Conservative and Labour vote was narrowed to just 1.5%, meaning Labour are also in for the taking of this seat. Soubry being a former Conservative is likely to gain her some Tory remain voters so the question largely is how many remain Conservatives (nationally that's just under 1/3 of the 2017 supporters) will leave the party and back Soubry. My guess is that it will be quite small but it will be enough for Labour to take the seat. Of course it is important to remember that Labour too could lose votes to Soubry on the basis of their incoherent Brexit position, but the effect on their vote is likely to be highly minimal. Thus my prediction is that Broxtowe will go to Labour.

2019 Predicted winner: Labour gain from Change UK (originally Conservative)