Opinion Polls for UK election: August 2019

With Boris Johnson now Prime Minister for almost a month, the August average poll results are in:

Disclaimer: Only including Great Britain wide parties

1. Conservatives = 31% (+10%)
2. Labour = 25% (+2%)
3. Liberal Democrats = 18% (-1%)
4. Brexit Party = 14% (-8%)
5. Green Party = 6% (-2%)
6. UKIP = 1% (+/- 0)
7. Change UK = 0% (-1%)

Boris Johnson replacing Theresa May has done a world of good for the Conservative Party. Johnson's do or die pledge regarding brexit has left the Brexit Party losing 8% and the Conservatives gaining 10. Since my record of monthly average opinion polls were taken, (after the 2010 General election), July's score was the lowest that the Conservatives had ever seen, with 21%. They were also third in the polls for two months in a row, something that has also never happened before. Under Johnson, the Conservatives have gained 10%, but it is crucial to remember that 31% is still pretty low. That being said, the tories are 6% higher than Labour. We have two more months of averages until Brexit day, and if it looks like Brexit will happen, then the Conservatives will more than certainly gain all bar a few percentages from the Brexit party. However, a vote of no confidence seems likely to succeed, meaning that, as ever with brexit, nothing is predictable. It is perhaps also interesting to note that the Brexit party has lost 8% but the Conservatives have gained 10%, meaning they have gained 2% from elsewhere too. It looks like another party is also losing out to the Conservatives.

Labour last month were also on a record low on 23%, likely due to their vague position on brexit. Now the party has finally decided that it will be a remain party, it is likely to take more votes back from the Liberal Democrats. However it is still early days, and thus Labour have only grown marginally. The total Labour-Tory vote has now risen to 56% from the record low 44%. Of course there was a time it was 82%.

The Liberal Democrats have fallen ever so slightly in their polling position. This small slip of 1% is likely to Labour now swapping from being a brexit supporting party to a remain one. This move by Labour is likely to course the Lib Dems to lose even more percentage points in the next month's average.

The Brexit party had grown massively under Theresa May's leadership of the Conservatives but now that the Tories seem to mean to get brexit done, the Brexit Party's percentage points are falling. There was a time of course that the Brexit Party were leading the polls, the fist time in my recordings that a party other than Labour or the Conservatives have done this. The Brexit Party has lost 8% and this is likely to fall even further if the Conservatives seem more and more likely to get brexit done. However, if the Tories fail, the Brexit Party are likely to rise again, and perhaps even more so. The Brexit Party still has a respectable support base, even with the Conservatives' change of positon, and this is likely down to people losing faith with the Tories but also down to Labour brexit supporters who want brexit but can't bring themselves to vote Conservative. Until Brexit happens, the Brexit Party will still be a credible threat to the Conservatives, particularly under the First Past the Post System.

The Green Party have also dipped slightly by 2%, falling from their record high of 8%. The 8% record high was likely to be down to the increase in observance in climate change, but as all things do,(except brexit it seems), the mass interest has fallen. Caroline Lucas' blunder of sexism against men is also likely to have seen the Green Party lose support, as well as Labour's shift to remain and the new Remain Alliance being formed under Heidi Allen, which no doubt will benefit the Liberal Democrats the most as seen in the Brecon by-election. I expect the Green Party to perhaps fall slightly more in next month's average poll but not by more than 1%.

UKIP had seen a rise in the March days when Theresa May failed to deliver on Brexit on 29th March, but since Farage has created the Brexit Party, UKIP's message seems to be more redundant. UKIP's far right elements that the Brexit Party lack, is however keeping it somewhat alive. UKIP remain on 1%, a small percentage and their record low, for a third month in a row. UKIP may well keep to the 1%, but as soon as Brexit is achieved, I see it unlikely UKIP will be able to continue for too much longer.

Change UK, like UKIP, had been on 1% for two months, but unlike UKIP, they have not managed to keep this up for a third month, now dropping to 0%. Change UK's remain argument is being dominated by the Lib Dems and now Labour too. With the lack of the extra green message that the Green Party have, Change UK seem slightly pointless, especially now they on 0%. The remain alliance idea or a coalition of national unity may just save them from extinction, but at this rate Change UK are not heading anywhere good. It is unlikely that they will be able to achieve higher than 0% any time soon.