Opinion Polls for UK election: August 2019

With Boris Johnson now Prime Minister for almost a month, the August average poll results are in:

Disclaimer: Only including Great Britain wide parties

1. Conservatives = 31% (+10%)
2. Labour = 25% (+2%)
3. Liberal Democrats = 18% (-1%)
4. Brexit Party = 14% (-8%)
5. Green Party = 6% (-2%)
6. UKIP = 1% (+/- 0)
7. Change UK = 0% (-1%)

Boris Johnson replacing Theresa May has done a world of good for the Conservative Party. Johnson's do or die pledge regarding brexit has left the Brexit Party losing 8% and the Conservatives gaining 10. Since my record of monthly average opinion polls were taken, (after the 2010 General election), July's score was the lowest that the Conservatives had ever seen, with 21%. They were also third in the polls for two months in a row, something that has also never happened before. Under Johnson, the Conservatives have gained 10%, but it is crucial to remember that 31% is still pretty low. That being said, the tories are 6% higher than Labour. We have two more months of averages until Brexit day, and if it looks like Brexit will happen, then the Conservatives will more than certainly gain all bar a few percentages from the Brexit party. However, a vote of no confidence seems likely to succeed, meaning that, as ever with brexit, nothing is predictable. It is perhaps also interesting to note that the Brexit party has lost 8% but the Conservatives have gained 10%, meaning they have gained 2% from elsewhere too. It looks like another party is also losing out to the Conservatives.

Labour last month were also on a record low on 23%, likely due to their vague position on brexit. Now the party has finally decided that it will be a remain party, it is likely to take more votes back from the Liberal Democrats. However it is still early days, and thus Labour have only grown marginally. The total Labour-Tory vote has now risen to 56% from the record low 44%. Of course there was a time it was 82%.

The Liberal Democrats have fallen ever so slightly in their polling position. This small slip of 1% is likely to Labour now swapping from being a brexit supporting party to a remain one. This move by Labour is likely to course the Lib Dems to lose even more percentage points in the next month's average.

The Brexit party had grown massively under Theresa May's leadership of the Conservatives but now that the Tories seem to mean to get brexit done, the Brexit Party's percentage points are falling. There was a time of course that the Brexit Party were leading the polls, the fist time in my recordings that a party other than Labour or the Conservatives have done this. The Brexit Party has lost 8% and this is likely to fall even further if the Conservatives seem more and more likely to get brexit done. However, if the Tories fail, the Brexit Party are likely to rise again, and perhaps even more so. The Brexit Party still has a respectable support base, even with the Conservatives' change of positon, and this is likely down to people losing faith with the Tories but also down to Labour brexit supporters who want brexit but can't bring themselves to vote Conservative. Until Brexit happens, the Brexit Party will still be a credible threat to the Conservatives, particularly under the First Past the Post System.

The Green Party have also dipped slightly by 2%, falling from their record high of 8%. The 8% record high was likely to be down to the increase in observance in climate change, but as all things do,(except brexit it seems), the mass interest has fallen. Caroline Lucas' blunder of sexism against men is also likely to have seen the Green Party lose support, as well as Labour's shift to remain and the new Remain Alliance being formed under Heidi Allen, which no doubt will benefit the Liberal Democrats the most as seen in the Brecon by-election. I expect the Green Party to perhaps fall slightly more in next month's average poll but not by more than 1%.

UKIP had seen a rise in the March days when Theresa May failed to deliver on Brexit on 29th March, but since Farage has created the Brexit Party, UKIP's message seems to be more redundant. UKIP's far right elements that the Brexit Party lack, is however keeping it somewhat alive. UKIP remain on 1%, a small percentage and their record low, for a third month in a row. UKIP may well keep to the 1%, but as soon as Brexit is achieved, I see it unlikely UKIP will be able to continue for too much longer.

Change UK, like UKIP, had been on 1% for two months, but unlike UKIP, they have not managed to keep this up for a third month, now dropping to 0%. Change UK's remain argument is being dominated by the Lib Dems and now Labour too. With the lack of the extra green message that the Green Party have, Change UK seem slightly pointless, especially now they on 0%. The remain alliance idea or a coalition of national unity may just save them from extinction, but at this rate Change UK are not heading anywhere good. It is unlikely that they will be able to achieve higher than 0% any time soon.

Website Updates

I know posts have been scarce and rare recently, but fear not, a review for the next Doctor Who series 11 episodes, Arachnids in the UK, will be available shortly.

The Cabinet - May's last

Boris Johnson became Prime Minister on Wednesday 24th July and has now announced his new cabinet. Many of Theresa May's cabinet resigned with her and many more had been sacked, with the largest overhaul of cabinet in British Political History.

I will run down May's last cabinet and what has happened to them.

For second referendum and no deal I have put their view across which might not be how they actually voted in parliament.

May's Cabinet: 


Theresa May
Role: Prime Minister (2016-2019)
Previous Roles: Home Secretary (2010-2016)
MP Since: 1997
2016 Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Resigned

David Lidington
Role: Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (2018-2019) (de facto deputy Prime Minister)
Previous Roles: Justice Secretary (2017-2018), Leader of the House of Commons (2016-2017)
MP Since: 1992
2016 Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement: For
Second Referendum: Abstained
No Deal: Against
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Matt Hancock, then Rory Stewart, then did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Resigned

Philip Hammond
Role: Chancellor of the Exchequer (2016-2019)
Previous Roles: Foreign Secretary (2014-2016), Defence Secretary (2011-2014), Transport Secretary (2010-2011)
MP Since: 1997
2016 Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Abstained
No Deal: Against
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Resigned

Sajid Javid
Role: Home Secretary (2018-2019)
Previous Role: Communities Secretary (2016-2018), Business Secretary (2015-2016), Culture Secretary (2014-2015)
MP Since: 2010
2016 Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Himself, then Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Promoted

Jeremy Hunt
Role: Foreign Secretary (2018-2019)
Previous Role: Health Secretary (2012-2018), Culture Secretary (2010-2012)
MP Since: 2005
2016 Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Himself
Result in New Cabinet: Refused demotion resulting in sacking

Stephen Barclay
Role: Brexit Secretary (2018-)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2010
2016 Referendum Vote: Leave
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Remained in position

Penny Mordaunt
Role: Defence Secretary (2019)
Previous Role: International Development Secretary (2017-2019)
MP Since: 2010
2016 Referendum Vote: Leave
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Jeremy Hunt
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

David Guake
Role: Justice Secretary (2018-2019)
Previous Roles: Work and Pensions Secretary (2017-2018), Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2016-2017)
MP Since: 2005
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Abstained
No Deal: Against
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Rory Stewart, then did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Resigned

Matt Hancock
Role: Health Secretary (2018-)
Previous Role: Culture Secretary (2018)
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Himself, then Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Remained in position

Damien Hinds
Role: Education Secretary (2018-2019)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Michael Gove
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Liam Fox
Role: International Trade Secretary (2016-2019)
Previous Role: Defence Secretary (2010-2011)
MP Since: 1992
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Jeremy Hunt
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Greg Clark
Role: Business Secretary (2016-2019)
Previous Roles: Communities Secretary (2015-2016)
MP Since: 2005
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Abstained
No Deal: Against
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Jeremy Hunt
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Michael Gove
Role: Environment Secretary (2017-2019)
Previous Roles: Justice Secretary (2015-2016), Chief Whip (2014-2015), Education Secretary (2010-2014)
MP Since: 2005
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Himself, then did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Promoted

Chris Grayling
Role: Transport Secretary (2016-2019)
Previous Roles: Leader of the House of Commons (2015-2016), Justice Secretary (2012-2015)
MP Since: 2001
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Resigned

James Brokenshire
Role: Communities Secretary (2018-2019)
Previous Role: Northern Ireland Secretary (2016-2018)
MP Since: 2005
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Baroness Evans of Bowes Park
Role: Leader of the House of Lords (2016-)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: Not an MP but a Baroness
EU Referendum Vote: Did not comment
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: -
No Deal: -
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Remained in post

David Mundall
Role: Scotland Secretary (2015-2019)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2005
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Michael Gove, then did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Alun Cairns
Role: Wales Secretary (2016-)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Remained in post

Karen Bradley
Role: Northern Ireland Secretary (2018-2019)
Previous Role: Culture Secretary (2016-2018)
MP Since: 2010
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Michael Gove, then did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Rory Stewart
Role: International Development Secretary (2019)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Against
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: himself, then Jeremy Hunt
Result in New Cabinet: Resigned

Jeremy Wright
Role: Culture Secretary (2018-2019)
Previous Role: Attorney General (2014-2018)
MP Since: 2005
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Sajid Javid, then did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Amber Rudd
Role: Work and Pensions Secretary (2018-)
Previous Role: Energy Secretary (2015-2016), Home Secretary (2016-2018)
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Jeremy Hunt
Result in New Cabinet: Remained in same position

Brandon Lewis
Role: Chairman of the Conservative Party (2018-2019)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Demoted

Mel Stride
Role: Leader of the House of Commons (2019)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Michael Gove, then did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Sacked

Liz Truss
Role: Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2017-2019)
Previous Role: Environment Secretary (2014-2016), Justice Secretary (2016-2017)
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Promoted

Julian Smith
Role: Chief Whip (2017-2019)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2010
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: Abstained
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Did not comment
Result in New Cabinet: Promoted

Geoffrey Cox
Role: Attorney General (2018-)
Previous Role: -
MP Since: 2005
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Withdrawal Agreement Vote: For
Second Referendum: Against
No Deal: For
Backed in Leadership Contest 2019: Boris Johnson
Result in New Cabinet: Remained in same position