Saturday, 25 May 2019

The Next Conservative Party Leader - Who is running?

 Cabinet Members also include non-cabinet members that attend Cabinet meetings 

Rory Stewart
Declared: 5th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Positions: International Development Secretary (2019-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Sir Nicholas Soames
Notes: Wishes to find a compromise for a deal to leave the European Union. Supported May in all three meaningful votes. Has declared that he would not serve under Boris Johnson if he backed no deal. Has stated no deal would be disastrous for the country. Wishes to solve Brexit by meeting people across the country through gatherings organised by Twitter.

Esther McVey
Declared: 9th May 2019
MP Since: 2010-2015, 2017-
Cabinet Position: Work and Pensions Secretary (2018)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: No Deal (will not renegotiate a deal at all)
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Inapplicable as not MP at the time
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Resigned after Theresa May's withdrawal agreement was published. Backed the Third Meaningful vote. Supports leaving the EU without a deal as her main priority, will not even try and renegotiate a new deal

Boris Johnson
Declared: 17th May 2019
MP Since: 2001-2008, 2015-
Cabinet Position: Foreign Secretary (2016-2018)
Other Significant Roles: Mayor of London (2008-2016)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: No Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Andrea Leadsom
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Peter Bone, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries, Gavin Williamson, Zac Goldsmith, Johnny Mercer, John Wittingdale, Jo Johnson
Notes: Resigned after Theresa May's Chequers Plan to leave the EU. Supported Third Meaningful vote. Is prepared to leave with no deal. Long-time favourite to lead the Party. Currently under investigating for misconduct in public office for lying by saying that £350 million could be given to the  NHS if Britain voted to leave the EU.

Jeremy Hunt
Declared: 24th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2010-2012), Health Secretary (2012-2018), Foreign Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Aim for deal but prepare for no deal (no deal should be avoided)
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Patrick McLoughlin
Notes: Backed all three of Theresa May's meaningful vote but is believed to have privately rejected the attempted fourth. Is prepared for no deal but believes it would be 'political suicide' if the country did leave the EU this way. Was a contemporary of David Cameron at Oxford.

Matt Hancock
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2018), Health Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Unknown
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: Damien Green, Caroline Spellman
Notes: Seeks to compromise with Parliament and be more open than Theresa May to reach a deal. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes under Theresa May. Hancock has been described as being tech-savy and was the first MP to have their own app. Along with Raab, he started the 'Do not speak ill of a fellow Conservative pledge'. The Sun reports that Hancock was the one who approached the media to broadcast debates between the would-be leaders.

Dominic Raab
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Brexit Secretary (2018)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Aim for deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Michael Gove, unknown in membership vote
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: David Davis
Notes: Resigned as Brexit Secretary following disagreement with the withdrawal arrangement of exiting the EU. Voted for Theresa May's Third meaningful vote. Backs a deal but is prepared to leave with no deal. Along with Hancock, started the 'Thou Shall not speak ill will of a fellow Conservative' pledge.

Andrea Leadsom
Declared: 25th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Environment Secretary (2016-2017), Leader of the House of Commons (2017-2019)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepared to leave with no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Herself
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Went for leader in 2016, made it to the final two before withdrawing in the membership vote after saying that she would make a better PM than Theresa because she has children. Backed the government on the three meaningful votes but resigned as she opposed the propositions for the fourth. Wishes to leave with a deal but is prepared to leave with no deal.


Michael Gove
Declared: 26th May 2019
MP Since: 2005
Cabinet Position: Education Secretary (2010-2014), Chief Whip (2014-2015), Justice Secretary (2015-2016), Environment Secretary (2017-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Himself until he was voted out in second ballot, then supported Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: Mel Stride
Other Significant Support: Edward Leigh, Nicky Morgan
Notes: Ran in 2016 after stating he would not. Came 3rd of 5th, eliminated in second ballot. Gove's performance was noted to be weaker as he had withdrawn his support of Boris Johnson only minutes before the candidate deadline. Leading figure in Vote Leave but has stayed in the cabinet and supported May in all three meaningful votes.

Sajid Javid
Declared: 27th May 2019
MP Since: 2010
Cabinet Position: Culture Secretary (2014-2015), Business Secretary (2014-2015), Communities Secretary and Local Government Secretary (2015-2018), Home Secretary (2018-)
Other Significant Roles: -
EU Referendum Vote: Remain
Deal or No Deal: Not stated yet, but likely to be deal and prepare for no deal but in last resort
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Stephen Crabb (Ballot 1), Theresa May thereafter
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: Remain but with lackluster in the 2016 campaign. Pledged to provide more police officers. Would be first Prime Minister of a minority ethnicity. Backed all three meaningful votes although believed to privately reject the fourth.

Kit Malthouse
Declared: 27th May 2019
MP Since: 2015
Cabinet Position: -
Other Significant Roles: Deputy Mayor of London (2008-2016)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Deal but prepare for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: The Malthouse amendment put forward by Malthouse on one of the meaningful votes is the considered to be the most successful of the compromises put forward. Malthouse favours a deal or a 'managed no deal'. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes put forward by

James Cleverly
Declared: 29th May 2019
MP Since: 2015
Cabinet Position: -
Other Significant Roles: Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party (2018-2019)
EU Referendum Vote: Leave
Deal or No Deal: Favours Deal but prepared for no deal
2016 Leadership Election Vote: Theresa May
Cabinet Members Support: None
Other Significant Support: None
Notes: When questioned on lack of experience, Cleverly commented how neither Blair nor Cameron had any governmental experience and both were the more successful of the previous 4 Prime Ministers. Voted in favour of all three meaningful votes. Believes no deal should not be the aim but it would not be disaster if it occurred.

List of Candidates by current known support from MPs (313 total in the Party)
As of 29th May 2019
Jeremy Hunt = 30
Boris Johnson = 27
Michael Gove = 25
Dominic Raab = 22
Sajid Javid = 14
Matt Hancock = 11
Esther McVey = 6
Kit Malthouse = 6
Andrea Leadsom = 4
Rory Stewart = 3
James Cleverly = 1

So far that is 149 of the 313 (47% of the total number) that have endorsed a candidate, including those running of which numbers 11 now, more than any Conservative party leadership contest before.

Although less than half of the members have declared who they are backing, it can be taken that it is likely that the final two that go to the membership vote will be two of either Hunt, Johnson, Gove or Raab. Of course as each ballot sees only one eliminated the winner of the first ballot might not necessarily win in the end. For example those who are on the softer side of Brexit will back someone with that stance once their preferred candidate is eliminated and likewise on the other side. Of the 11 candidates, 7 voted for leave in the referendum, perhaps splitting their vote share of the hard core no dealers at the first ballot, but they might come together to beat out a remainer in the final set of ballots. Of course although the pledges not to speak ill of personality, this will also be a personality test with many perhaps not supporting candidates like Boris Johnson because of their mannerisms.

The contest is likely to last a while and I will try and keep on top of it but I am currently in exams so this might not be updated that frequently unfortunately.






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