Late Sunday evening David Davies, the first secretary of state for leaving the European Union in its creation resigned because he didn't believe in Theresa May's 'semi Brexit' that was established at the meeting in Chequers on Friday. This was not unexpected. Davies going was a long time coming. He has never agreed with the watered down version of Brexit that the Prime Minister thought that the British people voted for on that fateful day on 23rd June 2016.
Davies leaving was a blow but Boris Johnson's resignation as foreign secretary only the day after is a more major one. The cabinet is under collective responsibility meaning that all decisions made by the cabinet must be taken by them all. Boris has been allowed a lot of leeway on this. Now he is out he can create more havoc than he did when he was in one of the most powerful positions in the country. Boris' departure came as a surprise for the Prime Minister as he apparently seemed to be behind the decision that was reached at Chequers, to the degree that after that meeting on Friday the Prime Minister said that the days of collective cabinet responsibility was back. Quite wrong it now appears. The question is what does Boris do now. Despite the fact he didn't actually run for leader in the contest that May won in 2016 he has always been seen as her closest rival, potentially having won the contest had Michael Gove, his campaign manager not stabbing him in the back and announcing his own intentions to lead just one hour before the deadline of applying for the post of leader of the Conservative party and by default the position of Prime Minister. Boris probably felt quite pressured into resigning after Davies left and is probably now debating whether or not to challenge Theresa. Theresa met the 1922 committee yesterday and it appears that the backbenchers are behind her with perhaps the most famous of them, Jacob Rees-Mogg, claiming that a leadership challenge is not likely. However if Boris was to make the right moves, taking advantage of the fact that now all four Councillors of state are remainers (more on that later), he probably will be able to reach the minimum of 48 MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. Theresa is also fully aware of this and the fact that it might happen. She has said she is ready to fight for her post and has told her MPs quite rightly that trying to remove her sees a Corbyn government far more likely. Whether or not a challenge is faced now it is only a matter of time. Theresa May has a very tiny majority - 1 seat more and that's only with the support of the DUP. Again May is all fully aware of her challenges. She has met with the opposition to make it clear to them that her version is far better than the clear cut hard Brexit that Boris would put forward.
The issue is that if Boris does put forward a leadership challenge we will have three months of voting procedure, being done in October if it were to be conducted now. That would mean that the government would only have 5 months to further agree on their policies, pass it through the commons and then the lords and then to the EU negotiating team and then have agreed by all other 27 nations. If Theresa wins (which she probably would - although it still would be a challenge) she still would have enough rebels to still be potentially defeated in the commons. This might mean a vote of no confidence in the government itself, conducted by Jeremy Corbyn, triggering a general election. If this occurs the chance of a deal by 29th March 2019 is highly unlikely.
David Davies' replacement as Secretary of State for Leaving the European Union is Dominic Raab, a former housing minister and staunch Brexiteer. Although perhaps a little under-qualified he is one of the few leave supporters to stick by Theresa. The only more experience Brexiteer to stay with May is Gove but awarding him with such a promotion would be awarding him for his political backstabbing. The position does need to be a brexiteer so this is probably a good choice.
With so many experience politicians no longer being around following many resignations and forced departures (see below), Theresa's options for a great Councillor of state was incredibly limited. Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary is the only logical choice. He is a close ally to Theresa and will stick by her. The problem with his appointment is that as health secretary he has been remarkably unpopular and he is a remainer meaning that the four most powerful positions in the government (Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary) are all remainers. This is going to offend many Brexiteers in the Conservative Party and is undoubtedly going to cause problems to some sort of degree.
Following Jeremy Hunt being moved from the position of health secretary, that positin has gone to Matt Hancock, the former Culture Secretary and remainer. Hancock has been replaced by Jeremy Wright as culture secretary, the former attorney general. The new attorney general is the backbencher Geoffrey Cox. Kit Malthouse is the new housing minister, another former backbencher.
Theresa now has the choice of continuing her Chequers plan and face further resignations or altering it and not having it passed through by the opposition and have it slowed down by remainer house of lords. Whatever Theresa decides, a no deal is now highly likely.
In Theresa's two years as Prime Minister she has faced many resignations. A reminder.
1. Sir Michael Fallon - Defence Secretary - resigned after allocations of sexual misconduct
2. Priti Patel - International Development Secretary - resigned after it was discovered she had had undisclosed meeting with the Israeli government.
3. Damian Green - First Secretary of State (essentially deputy to the PM) - resigned after an inquiry discovered he had violated ministerial code after watching indecent videos on his office computer.
4. Amber Rudd - Home Secretary - resigned after she misinformed the house of commons of immigration removal targets.
5. David Davies - Brexit Secretary - resigned after disagreeing with the PM's plans for Brexit
6. Boris Johnson - Foreign Secretary - resigned after disagreeing with the PM's plans for Brexit.
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