In 2019 Labour received their worst General Election result in 84 years, and if opinion polls, recent local elections and by-elections are to be trusted (which should always be with a pinch of salt), then Labour could be heading to an equally if not potentially worse result in 2024.
Of course, lots can change in three years, but here are ten reasons why it is very difficult for Labour to win the next General Election:
1. More Red Wall seats to fall – For Labour to gain a majority of one in the next election they need a 12.5% swing, which is higher than the record 10% held by Tony Blair in 1997. To do this Labour have to win back the 61 MPs they lost in 2019 (as well as an additional 73 seats), 51 of which were in the ‘red wall’. Instead of making ground in these areas, Labour are instead going the other way, losing Hartlepool and many local councils include Durham. If a similar swing is replicated in the General Election from the Hartlepool by-election a further 80 seats from the Red Wall would fall, far larger than what fell in 2019. A swing of this scale is unlikely, but what it shows is that the Red Wall did not fall because of a one off ‘Get Brexit Done’ but a permanent switch to the Conservatives that is likely to continue. Thus, winning these seats back is extremely difficult to achieve.
2. Blue Wall too small – Some believe that the Labour Party today is too different in policy to be able to reattract Red Wall voters so instead should attract Blue Wall voters. Blue Wall voters are located across the East and South in Conservative, well-off, leafy, middle-class, rural seats that voted for Remain and feel disillusioned with the perceived isolationist and infostructure heavy focus of Boris Johnson’s leadership. However, these seats are too small to secure Labour a victory as there are only 19 of these seats (according to my analysis of Electoral Calculus data), and 12 of these seats the Liberal Democrats are the challenger, not Labour. Not only are these seats too small in number but it would also require Labour to move to the right economically and become a party of NIMBYism (Not in My Backyard) to win them, which for many Socialist backbenchers would contradict the party’s working class roots.
3. The Voting coalition could collapse further – The unstable coalition of working-class Northern voters and Metropolitan voters collapsed in 2019, but there are signs that further groups of the Labour movement could leave. According to opinion polls, young voters are slowly starting to drift away from Labour and move to alternative progressive parties in the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, and Muslim voters are also on the move to George Galloway’s Workers’ Party. At the moment it is believed that just over half of 18-24 year olds and over 3/4’s of British Muslims back Labour. So, the situation is not quite in peril at the moment but if these two groups also start to depart Labour, even in a tiny faction, Labour could lose the slim majorities they have in some metropolitan seats in London, Canterbury, Exeter and Bristol for example.
4. Scotland – Scotland used to be a pedestal of Labour, with them having 41 of 59 seats in 2010. They now have one. Labour’s position in Scotland seems to be dwindling further, with the Holyrood election in 2021 being their worst yet. Labour are caught in the middle with nationalist heavy SNP on the one side and Unionist heavy Conservatives on the other, both taking their voters. Without a substantial number of Scottish seats it is very hard for Labour to get that crucial 326. To do so with English and Welsh seats alone they would need to pass a threshold that would include Jacob Rees-Mogg’s seat in Somerset, an incredibly strong Conservative seat with 26.1% majority.
5. Split Progressives and United Right – The Conservatives have successfully marginalised UKIP from a strong 13% of the vote to below 0.1% and the Brexit Party’s strong base of voters in the North show indication that they are now turning to the Conservatives, of which 2/3s of whom were former Labour voters. The left however is split with the Greens polling at record highs, the Liberal Democrats polling at around 10%, and Plaid Cymru and SNP in Wales and Scotland. This can be seen by the fact that of the 650 seats in the UK, the Conservatives are the incumbent or main challenger in 584 seats compared to 520 for Labour. Labour have also failed to hegemonized the remain vote in the same way that the Conservatives have with the Leave vote (Conservatives have 72% of leavers backing them compared to 46% of Remainers voting Labour). This means that Labour have failed to attract Conservative Remainers in the same fashion than the Conservatives have attracted Labour Leavers. Even with the progressive side united, it is not enough to beat the Conservatives, but it is a significant hinderance that Labour have not vanquished the other progressive parties like the Tories have on the right.
6. Economics – The Labour Party being the party for left-wing economics is proving to be difficult when Boris Johnson’s government have spent far more than any other government in living memory and on the most part have kept most people’s businesses alive in a pandemic – not all of course, but most. When a Conservative government is providing more welfare and handouts, higher taxes and additional tax for social care reform, it outflanks Labour and means they have a difficult position to argue. Although there are always flaws to policy, for voters, most of which do not take interest in politics, it is all about perception, and the perception is growing that the Conservatives care about the average person – an electoral benefit the party did not previously possess merely six years ago. The Conservatives are also trusted more with the economy, even amongst many Labour voters, and this is a difficult position for Labour to be in amidst an emerging financial crisis. As one former Labour voter said, the word they think off when someone says Labour is ‘debt’.
7. Culture – Labour are perceived, rightly or wrongly to be obsessed with issues that the average person does not care about (only just over 1/5 of voters have heard of the term ‘woke’), or disagrees on. When it comes to defunding the police, removing statues, vocal against the monarchy, voters are strongly against it. Starmer is not vocal in any of these, but his backbenchers are. The culture war is so toxic that most progressives do not say anything, allowing the progressive side of the argument to be taken by woke twitter warriors. They are a minority with socialist views that the Electoral Calculus (the most accurate polling company in 2019, but still underestimated the scale of Conservative victory) estimates only 4% of the population uphold. To quote former Labour cabinet minister Khalid Mahmood, there is an image that the Labour Party has been ‘overtaken by a middle-class bourgeoisie… that are more concerned about taking down Winston Churchill’s statute than improving the working person’s lives’, which is a problem for Labour. It is – and will be for at least the next thirty years – on the minority side of the culture war. Changing people’s minds is a difficult thing to do, and it is only doable when the economic and social desirability and political feasability is there; none of which are in Labour’s favour currently.
8. So-called ‘Long Corbyn’ – Jeremy Corbyn’s name is still a reason given by voters not to vote for Labour, despite him leaving office well over a year ago. He is so toxic that Labour is still viewed as anti-Britain by many voters. Corbyn has the lowest reception of any leader in the history of the Conservative and Labour party and his comments on Hamas, the IRA or siding with the Kremlin over the Salisbury poisonings are still looming with Labour. Starmer has been seen to act over antisemitism, but its legacy is still felt in many communities.
9. Brexit mistrust – Brexit is not brought up much by voters on the doorstep it is reported, but Labour not committing to the result of the 2016 referendum and the perception they tried to stop Brexit in parliament has stuck with them. 40% of Labour voters backed Brexit, and many feel betrayed by Labour, sticking with the Conservatives rather than returning. It is a challenge to win these voters back as mistrust is a significant electoral hinderance.
10. Internal infighting – It is well-known that divided parties do not win elections. Blairites, Corbynites and Starmerites fighting each other on Twitter and in Parliament does not bode well. Crucially, the socially-conservative working class have left Labour en masse. Blairites and Corbynites may differ on issues like the EU, the former keen to rejoin and the latter more Eurosceptic, or on the economy, with Blairites excepting of Thatcherite economics whilst the latter are ardent socialists. However, they agree more than they disagree on progressive values; values that many former Labour voters do not hold. Labour needs to compromise and unite to be able to convince the public they can vote for Labour for the first time, or again.
“It should not be surprising that people who voted for Thatcher, Cameron and Johnson dislike the implication [from Labour] that they have been supporting racists and fascists this whole time.” – Tom Harris, former Labour MP
